Merkel’s successor will restore relations with Washington

FRANKFURT – “The days when we could fully trust others are over.”

These were the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel after a difficult G-7 and NATO meeting with President Donald Trump in 2017. That phrase marked a departure from her usual feeling towards the relationship. transatlantic and was widely seen as a time of cultivation.

Despite the rain of Trump administration statements, Merkel preferred to stay calm for years to come, probably expecting a new president in 2020.

She and the German establishment got what they wanted: Joe Biden is a new American leader with a clear multilateral and pro-European agenda.

But while relationships are much friendlier on the surface now, there are still some central issues.

“Big issues like Nord Stream 2 and NATO’s spending target of 2% of GDP will remain controversial issues,” said Andreas Dombret, a board member of Atlantik Brücke, a nonprofit organization. for-profit that promotes German-American relations. a telephone interview with CNBC. Nord Stream 2 is the Russian-led pipeline that is expected to provide Europe with a sustainable energy supply.

“There is no direct progress with the new US administration, especially when it comes to a free trade agreement, which is probably not within reach,” Dombret added.

Predicting the future of German-American relations is not an easy task, as there are many factors that combine. For example, it seems that the US demands a clear commitment to prioritize relations with the White House over those it has with China and Russia.

“We must step back against the abuses and economic coercion of the Chinese government that undermine the foundations of the international economic system,” President Joe Biden said in his speech during the Munich security conference in February.

“The Kremlin is attacking our democracies and arming corruption to try to undermine our system of governance,” he added in another part of that speech.

Normally, Germany has put its own economic interests above anything else when it comes to its relationship with Beijing. But that is bound to change.

“There is a lot of pressure to change attitudes towards China that is being built from the interior of Germany, parties like the Greens, parts of the CDU (of Merkel) want a harder line,” Noah said Barkin, managing director of the China Rhodium Group practice based in Berlin.

When it comes to Russia, things are more difficult, especially thanks to the conflicting Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has broad support in Germany. Russia’s problem also ties in perfectly with the issue of NATO spending. Critics say Germany cannot ask for NATO support, but then does not pay its fair share to the budget, while funding Russia through the pipeline and waiting for the full shield of the United States when things go wrong.

The Greens, who are potential Berlin councilors with federal elections scheduled for September, have a different view that is also recognized in the US. NATO and disassociate itself from military action. The official party line has changed since then, but the party leadership still has difficulty getting its members to fully support it.

Germany and other nations have been criticized for not contributing enough to their defense budgets, with the NATO target set at 2% of GDP.

“I think the 2% orientation on NATO spending is an absurd debate,” said Annalena Baerbock, one of the Green Party’s candidates for chancellery and a rising star on the political scene. , in an interview with the newspaper Die Zeit.

The direction of transatlantic politics will depend on the composition of the coalition government while Merkel resigns and Germany votes for a new leader later this year. If his CDU party ends up ruling with the Liberal Party, the FDP, things will probably go well, as they both have a firm commitment to the US.

However, if the CDU partners with the Greens, things get complicated, especially because of NATO spending. In the case of the so-called Jamaican coalition of the CDU, the FDP and the Greens, the latter will have two major counterweights in Parliament to possibly dilute any legislation they push for.