Amid rising unemployment during the pandemic, another crucial problem in the labor market has been overlooked: workers are calling sick in record numbers this year.
Whether it’s because they have Covid-19 themselves, are worried about getting it, or care about someone who already has it, the number of workers who have lost days at work has doubled in the pandemic.
In addition, unlike the unemployment rate, which has fallen steadily since its April high, the absenteeism rate – as economists call it – has remained stubbornly high. Almost 1.8 million workers were absent in November due to the disease, almost equaling the record 2 million recorded in April, according to data from the Department of Labor.
Aside from the disease
The record number of American workers has been absent due to the disease
Source: US Department of Labor
These lost work days are affecting an economic recovery that has been advancing for much of the last few months. While some indicators have improved markedly, others such as retail sales, spending, and consumer revenue have weakened as the pandemic collapses and local governments impose new restrictions on business and travel.
Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, said the vaccine could begin to reduce absenteeism in the second quarter. Until then, he said, lost work leads to supply chain disruption.
Absenteeism “could lead to shortages, could lead to higher prices and more moderate production,” Gapen said.
With approximately 1.5 million new cases a week and deaths at a record rate, employee absenteeism may remain high for some time, especially in early 2021 before vaccines are widely distributed and with the deployment in the US advancing more slowly than government officials expected.
Factory workers
While Department of Labor data tracks people who are currently working and ill, a separate survey by the Census Bureau picks up on an even broader view of the challenge. His latest survey on dust in families, based on responses in late November and early December: An estimated more than 11 million people were out of work because of the virus. Figures also include those who refrained from working because they were worried about getting infected or infected with the virus, and those who cared for someone with symptoms.
Read more: Covid Surge puts health workers aside when they need them most
The effects of missing workers are especially concentrated in manufacturing. Absenteeism, combined with short-term layoffs to clean up facilities and difficulties in returning and hiring workers, limit the sector’s growth potential, according to Timothy Fiore, chair of the manufacturing business investigation committee of the Institute of Supply Management.
Measurement of the group’s plant activity grew at a slower pace in November, with an employment component returning to a level indicating a contraction.
“It’s not a lack of work,” Fiore said in a recent call to reporters, noting absenteeism especially for low- and middle-skilled roles. “It’s a lack of people.”
In addition to temporarily absent workers, the manufacturing sector has 525,000 jobs, most of the job records up to 2000.
Car plants feel the effects. General Motors Co. put white-collar employees at the production plant in August to cope with high absenteeism amid strong demand. Volkswagen AG chief financial officer Frank Witter has it he said high levels of missing staff left the carmaker “sometimes struggling to get all the cars made for customer orders”.
U.S. companies have reported that growing cases precipitated plant closures and fears of infection, which added to labor problems such as absenteeism and attrition, according to the latest summary of economic conditions. Federal Reserve Federal Reserve. Manufacturers in the Chicago area have used overtime to make up for staff shortages on December 2 said the report.
Sick leave
For office workers, 90% of professionals said before the pandemic that they would sometimes go to work sick, according to a 2019 study by the staff firm Accountemps. Covid changed the conversation and there are more employees staying home to protect themselves and others.
The First Families Coronavirus Response Act earlier this year facilitated the decision to stay home for some Americans allow two weeks of sick leave for certain employees. The law also allows permits for those who cannot work because they have to care for a child.
The latest stimulus bill, signed by President Donald Trump on Dec. 27, includes an extension of the law to March 31, but makes paid leave voluntary for employers rather than mandatory, such as as it was in the first iteration. This can continue the tendency of workers to stay home depending on how many employers choose to grant leave.
However, the law excludes essential workers, which means that employees in facilities such as meat packaging plants cannot take advantage of the policy. This in turn can cause outbreaks in the workplace and further alter production.
Read more: The pandemic is starting to hit U.S. meat plants again
With fewer employees at work, slaughter rates at U.S. meat factories fell in the third quarter. Tyson Foods Inc. CEO Dean Banks said in a recent earnings call that absenteeism “has increased the cost and complexity of our operations” and that the company expects it to continue in 2021.
– With the help of Henry Ren and Julia Fanzeres