JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) – Before each rainy season, Lu Lu Aung and other farmers living in an IDP camp in the far north of Kachin State, Myanmar, would return to the village where they fled and they would plant crops that would help keep them fed for the next school year.
But this year, in the wake of the February military coup, with the rains within walking distance, farmers rarely leave their makeshift homes and do not dare to leave their camp. They say it is simply too dangerous to risk meeting soldiers from Myanmar’s army or its aligned militias.
“We can’t go anywhere and we can’t do anything since the coup,” Lu Lu Aung said. “Every night, we hear the sounds of fighter jets flying so close to our camp.”
The army’s lethal crackdown on protesters in major central cities such as Yangon and Mandalay has received much attention since the coup that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government. But far on the borders of Myanmar, Lu Lu Aung and millions of others from minority ethnic groups in Myanmar are facing growing uncertainty and declining security as long-standing conflicts between guerrilla armies minorities and the military are springing up again.
It is a situation that came to the fore last week when the military launched deadly airstrikes against ethnic Karen guerrillas in their homeland, on the eastern border, displacing thousands and sending civilians fleeing to neighboring Thailand.
Several rebel armies have threatened to join forces if the killing of civilians is not stopped, while a group of ousted members of the government has raised the idea of creating a new army that includes rebel groups. Meanwhile, the UN special envoy to Myanmar has warned that the country is facing the possibility of a civil war.
Ethnic minorities make up about 40% of Myanmar’s 52 million people, but central government and military leadership have long been dominated by the country’s ethnic Burmese majority. Since Britain’s independence in 1948, more than a dozen ethnic groups have sought greater autonomy, with some maintaining their own independent armies.
This has put them at odds with Myanmar’s ultranationalist generals, who have long seen any cession of territory, especially those in border areas often rich in natural resources, which amount to betrayal and have ruthlessly fought against rebel armies. with occasional periods of ceasefire.
The violence has sparked allegations of abuse against all parties, such as arbitrary taxes on civilians and forced recruitment, and according to the United Nations has displaced some 239,000 people since 2011. This does not include the more than 800,000 minority Rohingya who fled. in Bangladesh to escape a military campaign that the UN has called ethnic cleansing.
Protests against the coup have taken place in all border states since February, and security forces have responded as elsewhere with tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. But residents and observers say the post-coup situation in geographically isolated border areas has been exacerbated by rising skirmishes between the military and armed ethnic organizations acting for power and territory.
Lu Lu Aung, who belongs to the Kachin ethnic group, said he took part in protests, but stopped as it was now too dangerous. He said Myanmar security forces and aligned militias recently occupied their former village where they planted crops and that no one left the camp because they feared they would be forced to work for the army.
“Our students can no longer continue school and for adults it is very difficult to find work and make money,” he said.
Humanitarian aid for civilians in border areas – already strained by the pandemic, as well as the inherent difficulty that external groups face in operating in many areas – has also been harsh since the coup.
Communications have been paralyzed, banks have closed and security has become increasingly uncertain, said the director of a Myanmar-based organization that supports displaced people who spoke on condition of anonymity for reasons of security.
“There is no more humanitarian aid and support,” he said.
In eastern Karen State, where airstrikes have displaced thousands of people, there is concern that the arrival of the rainy season could exacerbate a humanitarian situation that has already been hampered by reports that Thailand has returned to many of the fleeing civilians. Thailand has said those who returned to Myanmar did so voluntarily.
However, there are parts of the country’s border areas that have hardly been affected by the coup.
In Wa State, a border region with China and Thailand that has its own government, army and ceasefire agreements with Myanmar’s army, videos shared online show life going on as usual, including the implementation of a coronavirus vaccination campaign.
Near Bangladesh, in the coastal state of Rakhine, where the Rohingya were expelled and where violent clashes with the Arakan army group have been going on for years, the junta withdrew the last month the group from its list of terrorist groups, raising hopes of reducing hostilities. The Arakan army, unlike other armed groups, had not criticized the coup.
The group, however, has since issued a statement declaring its right to defend its territory and civilians against military attacks, prompting some to fear a further escalation of fighting.
Other armed groups have issued similar statements. Some like Karen’s National Union have provided protection to civilians marching in protests against the coup.
These actions have contributed to the call for a “federal army” that brings together armed ethnic groups from across the country. But analysts say this view would be difficult to achieve due to logistical challenges and political disagreements between the groups.
“These groups are not in a position to provide the support against the Myanmar army that is needed in urban centers with large populations or really too far from their own regions,” said Ronan Lee, a visiting academic at Queen Mary University of London International State Crime Initiative.
Despite the uncertainty of what is to come, some minority activists say they have been encouraged since the coup by the increased focus on the role ethnic groups can play in Myanmar’s future. They also say there seems to be a greater understanding (at least among protesters against the coup) of the struggle that minorities have faced for so long.
“If there’s anything silver in all of this, that’s all,” said one activist, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fears for his safety.