MLB teams that should make a big move

The Mets had the biggest hit of the Hot Stove season last Thursday, acquiring distance fielder Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco of Cleveland. The landing of two players of this caliber, especially a star as magnetic as Lindor, is remarkable in any context. But it was especially huge for the

The Mets got the biggest clash of the Hot Stove season last Thursday, acquiring football field Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco of Cleveland.

The landing of two players of this caliber, especially a star as magnetic as Lindor, is remarkable in any context. But it was especially huge for the Mets, given their place in a competitive East National League led by three-time Braves division champions. According to Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, his ZiPS system had the Mets seven games behind Atlanta in the standings projected before the negotiation. Now, the two teams are virtually equal, with the Mets ’chances of making the postseason jump by about 31 percentage points, to 72.4%.

In fact, ZiPS shows that at the time of Lindor’s operation, the Mets had the maximum win of any team, in terms of playoff probability, by adding five wins to their roster (or roughly the combined impact of Lindor and Carrasco). But there are many other clubs that would get a bump comparable to this play.

Regarding Szymborski’s calculations, here are five of the teams that could benefit from more than one Mets-sized splash, and in a way that everyone could achieve that kind of feat. Keep in mind that these suggested moves aren’t necessarily at this level of five wins (they’re hard to find), but they would still provide a significant boost to each team’s October hopes.

Angels
This is a moment of opportunity in Anaheim. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are superstars in their early days, and the American West League could be as ripe for the catch as it has been in a while. Houston and Oakland will likely lose several key players, while Seattle and Texas do not seem ready to return to the top of the standings. New Angels general manager Perry Minasian has replaced Andrelton Simmons with José Iglesias in the short and added Raisel Iglesias closer, but has yet to achieve the kind of differential player that could change the balance of power in the West.

A splash: Free agent right hand signature Trevor Bauer. Starting the pitch has been a painful point for the Angels, and while Dylan Bundy turned out to be a fantastic low-purchase addition last year, the team’s rotation still ranks 19th in the WAR projected by FanGraphs. With Shohei Ohtani far from safe at this point, paying the price to get NL award winner Cy Young, which is projected at about 4 WAR, would be the best way to help Trout get back into the postseason.

Blue Jays
It looks like they’ve been in the mix of strength impact players this offseason, but so far they haven’t gotten any, with new signing left-back Robbie Ray. However, it is more a matter of who and when than if. The Blue Jays went from 95 losses in 2019 to 32-28 in the shortened campaign of the 20th, which made the postseason behind a young core of position players and last year’s big free agent acquisition , Hyun Jin Ryu. The club still finished behind the Rays and Yankees in the division, but with Tampa Bay saying goodbye to Blake Snell and Charlie Morton and the Yankees also having a quiet winter, there’s an opening here in Toronto.

A splash: File: Free player card George Springer. While the Jays could go in a few different directions, and snatching DJ LeMahieu from the Yanks would certainly be satisfying, Springer is probably the best. It would be a defensive improvement in the center over Randal Grichuk and would bring a winning story, not to mention his elite bat. Springer could help make the club not just a division candidate, but a championship candidate.

Cardinals
Really, this could be any of the top four teams in the National League Central. Leaving aside the Mets, the Puppies, the Cardinals, the Brewers and the Reds each ranked among the five teams with the most wins in a five-win jump, according to ZiPS. This is because these clubs are very close. Still, no one has advanced this offseason to try to improve their roster. (In fact, the most notable moves in the division have been remnants, led by Yu Darvish of Chicago). As for the Cardinals, they have managed to get into the playoffs in consecutive seasons, but their roster lacks high-ceiling talent. St. Louis, all he’s done this winter is the decline of Kolten Wong’s club option and (so far) he can’t re-sign franchise faces Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.

A splash: Change for third base Nolan Arenado. Although St. Louis has been connected to the Rocky Mountain star in the past, probably a big stretch, given the remaining six years and $ 199 million of Arenado’s contract and his post-2021 exclusion clause. But maybe the cards could be creative, considering all the big contracts planned to come out of the club’s books after this season (Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Andrew Miller and Carlos Martinez). Assuming his 2020 offensive fall was the product of a strange, shortened season, Arenado would be a massive improvement over a third of the 35-year-old Carpenter, who has struggled for the past two years.

Nationals
While the Hot Stove has so far been on slow fire, the Nats have been relatively active, tackling a fine lineup by switching to first baseman Josh Bell and signing left-hander Kyle Schwarber. Washington tackled two major areas of need and now has quite a few more hits behind Juan Soto and Trea Turner, but frankly, the job shouldn’t be done. Lindor’s trade made it clear, with ZiPS now seeing the Nats as a clear third behind Braves and Mets.

A splash: Capture of free signature agent JT Realmuto. The questionable depth of the Nats means that general manager Mike Rizzo could also make a significant addition to second or third base, or even the initial rotation, where there are many question marks behind Max Scherzer’s Big Three, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. But the Nats catchers, led by Yan Gomes, are at the bottom of the FanGraphs projections, while Realmuto has a strong case as the game’s best overall backstop. If Washington is willing to make the necessary financial commitment, this would help challenge Atlanta and New York.

Twins
Lindor’s trade helped Minnesota, ZiPS ’postseason probability increased to nearly 75%, with Cleveland falling back a clear third to AL Central. On the other hand, the twins have seen the other main candidate in the division, the White Sox, change for Lance Lynn and now come to an agreement with free agent Liam Hendriks, by sources. The twins have been relatively quiet and, if they are going to keep up with Chicago and catch their third consecutive division crown, some reinforcements are in order, even beyond the seemingly inevitable return of Nelson Cruz.

A splash: Trade for Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray. The two initial pitchers have introduce yourself to business conversations, with the Reds entertaining further payroll cuts, and both are projected among MLB’s top 20 pitchers (with Castillo slightly above Gray). The rotation of the twins is strong at the top (Kenta Maeda, José Berríos) but a bit unstable below it, especially considering that Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill are free agents. While Minnesota could settle for the back-to-back depth acquisition, having Castillo or Gray supplanting fifth-seeding options Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe would be the best way to counter the White Sox. This move would cost the twins ’wealth of perspective, but neither right would break the bank.