London, United Kingdom.
British health authorities began last Monday the frantic search of a person infected with the variant of Manaus (Brazil) from’ coronavirus, In the face of the concern that the vaccines they are not so effective against this strain.
According to Health, ithe unidentified individual did not complete the location record when it was tested covid-19 last February, so it is unknown his whereabouts that caused a research operation massive across the country.
That is why the Health Department asks who has not received the result of one covid-19 test on 12 or 13 February, which is put in contact with the authorities.
This variant, known as P1, was first detected in people who traveled to Japan des Manaus il last January.
The British Minister of Vaccines, Nadhim Zahawi, told Sky today that the strain is similar to the found in South Africa, So it is feared be more contagiousai “is from concern “after the scourge the country suffered for the British variant.
The Government has indicated that they have already communicated to the World Health Organization (WHO) On the finding in United Kingdom dand these cases of the variant of Manaus.
The British Executive has vetoed thes flights from dand several countries of South America, Portugal and South Africa, as a way to contain the propagation of these new variants which may affect the process of vaccination.
There are already three variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus possibly more contagious that worry the international community at a time when it comes to curbing the pandemic with vaccination campaigns. This is what is known:
What are these variants?
all mutant virusThat is, it is modify when they replicate.
the SARS-CoV-2 it has undergone multiple variations since its inception, but in general these have had no consequences. some mutations however they can favor their survival, for example, if one is achieved major contagion.
The variant B.1.1.7, Now called VOC 202012/01, was detected in November in the United Kingdom, then develop “probably” in September southeast of England, According to Imperial College London.
After spreading rapidly in this country, this variant was detected in dozens of other countries, since United States to South Korea, through India, France and Denmark.
Most cases were imported from the United Kingdom but some have no proven relationship with this country, as is the case with Denmark.
the variant 501.V2, now majority in South Africa, fue detected there in october and has been located in other countries like the United Kingdom and France.
According to experts, the number of cases of both variants is underestimated.
Both present several mutations of which one, the N501Y, Affects protein coronavirus spike, a tip that serves for attach to the ACE2 receptor dand human cells and penetrate into them.
This mutation increases the capabilities of adhesion of the virus to the ACE2 receptor. And although “there is no clearly established relationship between ACE2 membership and one higher transmission“It is possible that this exists,” according to the European Center for Prevention and Disease Control (ECDC).
Several scientific studies, based mainly on modeling and not yet evaluated by other experts in accordance with the scientific protocol, conclude that the British variant it is much more transmissible, which confirms the initial assessment of the NERVTAG research group, which advised the British government and estimated the difference between + 50% and + 70%.
Thus, according to calculations by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), the British variant would be between 50-74% more contagious.
By Imperial College London the capacity of contagion is between 50-75% higher and the reproduction rate (R) is between 0.4 and 0.7 higher than the usual virus.
Preliminary findings on the South African variant also account for one higher transmission, But less data available.
However, these results are based on epidemiological observations, like the explosion of the epidemic in EnglandBut other factors may come into play to explain this situation, such as the application of the prevention measures.
“One or two mutations appear to be responsible for one higher contagiousness, but this is to be verified “scientifically, which may take some time,” Vincent Enouf of the National Reference Center of AFP told AFP. Respiratory virus of the Institut Pasteur in Paris.
countries like Germany, Belgium and Mexico they have attributed to these variants the explosion of cases during the second wave of the pandemic in Europe and North America.
U.S. chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci noted last month that data released by the UK government should be assumed to be British variant can “cause more harm, Including death “.
“We must now assume that what is circulating predominantly in the United Kingdom has a certain degree of increase in that we call it virulenceThat is, the power of the damage virus, including the death “, declare the expert. The risk “is high in terms of hospitalizations and deaths,” he added.
And it is that “a greater contagiousness eventually amounts to a much stronger incidence and therefore to a greater pressure on the health system although the lethality (Of the variants) be the same, “according to Coignard.
A variant of SARS-CoV-2 that was “50% more transmissible would be a problem rather than a 50% more deadly variant “, Indicates on Twitter the British epidemiologist Adam Kucharski, using a statistical demonstration: with a reproduction rate of 1.1, a mortality rate of 0.8% and 10,000 infected people, within a month 129 deaths would occur. But if the infection rate increased by 50%, the number of deaths would would rise to 978.
On the other hand, the first studies on the British variant they point out that it is more contagious between the teens less than 20 years than the usual strain.
Do they affect the effectiveness of vaccines?
“For now, we don’t have enough information to say” that these variants pose a risk to the vaccine efficacy “, estimates the ECDC.
With the data available, “experts believe that current vaccines seran effective against these cepsHenry Walke of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.
For its part, BioNTech / Pfizer, who developed the first vaccine against covid19, assured Friday that this is effective against the mUTACION N501Y common to the British and South African variants and are already preparing one third dose to strengthen protection.
But the study did not analyze all of them mutations present, thus it cannot be concluded that the efficacy of the vaccine is the same as against classic virus.
In fact, a specific mutation in the South African variant raises more questions than the rest.
shout E484K, this mutation could theoretically “help “the virus to “Dodging the immune protection acquired by a previous infection or vaccination,” according to Dr François Balloux of University College London, quoted by the British body Science Media Center.
However, nothing indicates for now that this mutation is sufficient for the variant South African resists current vaccines, saccording to Balloux.
Several laboratories assured that they would be able to quickly provide new versions of the vaccine if needed.
How to deal with variants?
Lack of power to prevent lthe spread of these variants, the goal is “Backward” to maximum, according to Coignard.
The ECDC recommends that affected countries take measures similar to those at the beginning of the pandemic, such as limiting travel and testing people from high-risk areas. It calls for more control over the incidence of these variants, multiplying virus sequencing.
Some PCR tests may also suggest the presence of British variant.
At the individual level, “we need to be even more rigorous with the prevention measures “, according to Dr. Walke, in allusion to hand washing, wearing masks, and so on.