Morocco came to the headlines as the last Arab country to normalize relations with Israel, after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. This critical action will facilitate the resumption of diplomatic ties, encourage “economic and technological” partnerships and allow direct flights between Morocco and Israel. Morocco is also the ancestral home of one million Jews and more than 50,000 Israelis travel to Morocco each year.
But the agreement comes with the recognition of Morocco’s claim to sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara, essentially supporting Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only framework for negotiating any resolution with the Polisario Front. The decision of the United States in the struggle for Western Sahara marks a radical change of policy towards one of the most intractable conflicts in the region.
Despite fueling some concern within Morocco, the decision to normalize relations with Israel is broadly seen as a positive move for its international position, especially in improving relations with Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates. United and Bahrain, with the additional strategic gain. in recognition of their claims to Western Sahara.
Having sought the territory as part of its foreign policy for the past four decades, the monarchy considers this to be an important diplomatic victory. However, the surprising endorsement of his statement will serve, however, as proof of Morocco’s ability to demand effective local government in accordance with its advanced regional plan. It is ironic that the plan, the cornerstone of a strong pluralist Morocco, grants a certain level of autonomy to Western Sahara, even though it is still under its sovereignty.
The deal comes amid a ceasefire that collapsed last month after Morocco sent forces to a UN area to curb protests and the trade blockade. The Polisario Front, an Algerian-backed nationalist movement that has pursued independence and vindicated territory, and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic responded angrily to these recent events and are likely to feel supported in a corner and justified in resuming hostilities. . If Algeria, where the Polisario Front has bases and camps, intervenes, there could be greater unrest.
The Western Sahara dispute ignited in 1975 after the withdrawal from Spain, leaving Morocco, Mauritania and the Polisario Front at odds with the territory. An advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice that year recognized the ties of Morocco and Mauritania, but stated that they did not amount to a property in Western Sahara. Instead, it favored the determination of the Sahrawis. A 1991 agreement installed a peace system that called for preserving status until a referendum could be held, but that never happened, as both sides worked to change the demographics in the area. Morocco now controls most of the territory.
The Bou Craa mine in Western Sahara is home to one of the world’s largest reserves of phosphate, a critical ingredient in agricultural fertilizers. Its production capacity, operated by a subsidiary of a mining company owned by Morocco, represents approximately 8% of the total extraction capacity of the mining company. Western Sahara also has a lucrative fishery, an important sector that has grown under the control of the central government. It is also believed that there are significant offshore oil and gas reserves that could boost the local economy. But southwestern Algeria, where the Polisario Front camps are located, is arid and desolate.
As Morocco has struggled to validate its control of Western Sahara, the U.S. decision is a major victory for the country. Despite some inconvenience at home with the perceived repudiation of the Palestinian cause, national fervor for Western Sahara overshadows anxieties over a deal with Israel and its results. Morocco’s real challenge is the integration of Western Sahara.
Is it possible for Sahrawi culture to survive in Morocco? Algeria has supported the Sahrawi cause. But these recent events may provide an opportunity to establish a plan where Sahrawi society can survive in the context of a plural Morocco. If Western Sahara wants to be part of Morocco, there is no need to dissolve. The real proof will be that Morocco demonstrates that it can transfer government functions and allow the local administration of the territory of Western Sahara to show its identity and its people as part of a diverse and inclusive Morocco.
Patricia Karam is regional director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Republican Institute that works to promote democracy.