Most Europeans believe the US political system is broken, that China will be the world’s leading power in a decade, and that Joe Biden will not be able to stop his country’s decline on the world stage, according to a report. .
While many welcomed Biden’s victory in the November US election, more Europeans think that after four years of Donald Trump, the United States cannot be trusted, according to the European Council’s study. Foreign Relations.
“Europeans like Biden, but they don’t believe the United States will return as world leaders,” said Mark Leonard, director of the working group. “When George W Bush was president, they were divided on how the United States should use its power. With Biden entering the White House, they are divided on whether America has power.
The survey of 15,000 people in 11 European countries, conducted late last year, showed that the shift in European sentiment toward the U.S. following the Trump presidency had led to the corresponding unwillingness to support Washington in possible international disputes.
At least half of respondents in the 11 countries surveyed felt, for example, that their government should remain neutral in any conflict between the US and China, while no more than 40% in any country said they would support Washington. against Russia.
“Clearly, Trump’s tumultuous presidency has left an indelible mark on Europe’s attitude toward the United States,” said Ivan Krastev, president of the Center for Liberal Strategies, a Sofia NGO and a board member of the ECFR. “Most Europeans are now skeptical about the ability of the United States to shape the world. It makes many, rightly or wrongly, want to opt for a more independent role for the EU in the world.”
In their report, Leonard and Krastev point out that while more than 60% of respondents believed that the United States was “broken,” most assessed the systems of the EU and their own countries in a much more positive way: a opportunity, according to them, to harness the collective power of the bloc for the benefit and protection of its citizens.
The survey revealed that 51% of respondents disagreed with the statement that according to Biden, the United States is likely to resolve its internal divisions and try to address international issues such as climate change, peace and security. the Middle East, relations with China or European security.
Amid widespread sense of growing Chinese superiority, 79% of respondents in Spain, 72% in Portugal, 72% in Italy and 63% in France said they thought China would overtake the United States as the first world superpower in the next decade.
Just over 32% of all respondents – and a staggering 53% of respondents in Germany – felt that after voting for Trump, Americans could not be trusted. Only in Hungary and Poland were there a large number of people who disagreed with this view of those who agreed.
Only 10% of respondents saw the US as a “reliable” security partner that would always protect Europe, while at least 60% of all respondents said they doubted their country could depend on US support in case of crisis.
The authors say the geopolitical consequences of this change are significant: two-thirds of respondents said it was now important for Europe to look after its own defense, including 72% in Portugal, 71% in Sweden, 70% in France and 69% in Poland.
At least half of respondents in all countries surveyed said they would prefer their government to be neutral in a conflict between the US and China. In the 11 states surveyed, only 23% of respondents thought their country should side with Washington against Russia, and 59% prefer to remain neutral.
Between 38% and 48% of respondents in seven countries thought that the EU should take a tougher international stance on issues such as trade, taxation and regulation, while most countries considered Germany to be now a more important country with which to “have a good relationship” The USA.
The survey also revealed that in nine of the 11 countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden), where the same question was asked in previous years, the average share of people who they declared the EU’s political policy. the system worked very or fairly well had gone from 46% to 48%.
It was found that people who believed their own national political system worked, which was more common in northern than southern Europe, were more likely to say the EU was a success.
The report identified four “tribes” that went a long way in grouping respondents ’positions, depending on whether they believed the EU, the US or China were increasing or decreasing. The largest tribe, “In Europe we trust,” made up 35% of respondents, while only 9% belonged to “In America we trust”.