Moderna’s shares rose 66% in January, as the coronavirus vaccine was licensed in a wide range of countries, including the United States.
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Modern (MRNA) joined Pfizer (PFE) and couple BioNTech (BNTX) with a Covid-19 vaccine authorized by a Food and Drug Administration in December. Both vaccines use messenger RNA technology to elicit an immune response.
During JP Morgan Healthcare’s annual conference, CEO Stéphane Bancel said the company has authorizations in more than 30 countries. This includes Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Europe and Israel. This is Moderna’s first commercial product.
Moderna shares reached a record high on December 1 after the company said its Covid-19 vaccine was 94.1% effective in a phase 3 test. In comparison, Pfizer and BioNTech they claim that their coronavirus drug proved to be 95% effective in the final phase tests.
Modern is on track to make 600 million doses of its coronavirus vaccine this year, Bancel said. Now, the company is adding staff in hopes of reaching 1 billion doses this year and up to 1.2 billion doses by 2022. That’s key because Covid-19 is here to stay, Bancel predicted.
“We believe we will live with this virus forever,” he said.
So is it possible that MRNA shares are now being bought in the midst of their efforts against the coronavirus vaccine?
A fundamental look at modern stock
The biotech company uses its promising messenger RNA or mRNA technology. Messenger RNA is a substance in the body that provides instructions for creating proteins.
The type of coronavirus that Covid-19 causes, called SARS-CoV-2, is covered by so-called ear proteins. Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine contains mRNA that tells the body to produce a structure similar to the ear protein. The idea is that this triggers the immune system to create antibodies and T cells that fight disease.
But Modern is not yet profitable. To date, the company has recorded losses every year since its inception in 2016. In addition, Moderna’s revenues are variable and depend on collaboration and grant money.
This removes the MRNA action from the CAN SLIM threshold. Experienced investors are advised to look for stocks with quarterly sales and profit growth of 20% to 25%. The greater this growth, the better. It will be key to see if Moderna’s vaccination efforts end up bearing fruit.
In the third quarter, Moderna reported a loss of 55% per share for revenue of $ 157.9 million. This is due to a loss of 37 cents and $ 17 million in sales over the previous year’s period. For the fourth quarter, analysts surveyed by FactSet expect a loss of 34 cents per share and sales of $ 279.4 million.
Modern stocks have a composite valuation of 77 out of a 99 as best as possible. The composite valuation is a measure of 1 to 99 of the main fundamental and technical measures of the action. Therefore, Moderna’s shares rank closely at the top of all stocks of these metrics.
What does 2019 say about MRNA Stock?
Moderna’s shares were made public at 11pm at the end of 2018.
In 2019, biotech stocks appeared around 38%. In 2020, however, shares soared more than 434%.
However, Moderna’s bullish action does not extend to fundamental measures. In 2019, Moderna reported a loss of $ 1.55 per share for $ 60 million in sales. Losses have intensified each year from its full four years and revenue has declined for the past two years.
By 2020, analysts surveyed by FactSet expect losses of $ 1.57 per share for $ 530 million in sales. Losses will be reduced slightly as sales soar by 783%. In 2021, analysts expect Moderna to be solidly profitable with a rapid acceleration in revenue.
Modern stock: technical analysis
Moderna shares exploded on a cup basis with a buy point at 178.60 on January 29th. But on Feb. 1, stocks fell below their entry, according to MarketSmith.com. This triggered a sell rule when a stock falls 7% -8% below its point of purchase.
Following the upward news of the coronavirus vaccine on November 16, Moderna’s shares erupted with strong volume. Biotech stocks outperformed the 95.31 point of purchase of a consolidation. Shares hit a record high that day, at 100.13, but quickly faced resistance and began to sink below their breaking point.
Shares of Moderna later destroyed that record in the last three trading days in November. Shares hit a new record again on December 1, but quickly fell into the news Merck (MRK) had ceded its investment in MRNA shares. On December 9, shares fell in a downgrade by analysts.
Advances from other Covid-19 vaccine manufacturers have also occasionally weighed on Moderna’s stock. In September, AstraZeneca (AZN) stopped Covid-19 phase 3 vaccine trials when one participant became seriously ill. However, the study was restarted in October.
Signing of a commitment
Moderna and AstraZeneca are among the top nine Covid-19 vaccine manufacturers that have signed a commitment to pursuing science and safety in their development efforts. This occurred when American and other political leaders stopped vaccine requests as soon as possible to help troubled economies and calm social unrest.
Shares of Moderna fell 13% on Sept. 8 to a minimum of four months after Moderna signed that pledge. Investors should be wary. It will be key to monitor regulatory and commercial testing of your technology, as well as strong fundamental and technical markers.
In summary, MRNA shares have a strong relative strength index of 98. The RS rating is a score of 1 to 99 of the 12-month performance of the stock. This places Moderna in the top 2% of all shares, regardless of the industrial group, in terms of performance.
But Moderna shares present a poor EPS score of 19, reflecting years of continued earnings per share.
(RELATED: Keep up to date with daily business valuations of visiting IBD Digital investors.)
News about the coronavirus vaccine in MRNA Stock
Moderna set a record in early 2020, when it created an experimental coronavirus vaccine 42 days after the researcher received the genetic sequence of the virus from China. The National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases conducted the Phase 1 study in healthy volunteers.
This news made MRNA shares nearly 28% in a single day last February.
In mid-March, MRNA stocks rose more than 15% after the biotech company said it had dosed the first participant in a phase 1 study of the coronavirus vaccine. This was Moderna’s tenth vaccine against infectious diseases to start a clinical study.
Moderna’s shares jumped on May 18 after the biotechnology company said its coronavirus vaccine showed positive intermediate results in the phase 1 test. Researchers tested the vaccine on participants aged 18 to 55 years. .
All participants developed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 two weeks after receiving a second vaccine from the low-dose vaccine. The average dose produced even more antibodies. But Moderna shares fell more than 10% the next day after biotech announced a public offering of shares.
On July 14, Moderna released additional “robust” data from that same study. It should be noted that the mean dose generated 2.1-fold to 4.1-fold neutralizing antibodies observed in patients recovered from Covid-19. Modern plans to study this dose size in a final phase test.
The phase 3 test demonstrates 94.1% effectiveness
In mid-November, Moderna released a tentative analysis of the phase 3 test, stating that the vaccine was 94.5% effective. The analysis was based on an examination of 95 cases of Covid-19 starting two weeks after participants received the second shot. Of these cases, only five came from the vaccine group.
A second analysis examined 11 serious cases of Covid-19. All 11 came from the placebo group.
On November 30, Moderna said its coronavirus vaccine was 94.1% effective in its final phase 3 analysis. Of the 196 cases of Covid-19, 185 occurred in the placebo group. Only 11 came from the placebo group. There were no serious cases of Covid-19 among those who received the vaccine.
The vaccine so far seems relatively safe. Serious side effects included pain at the injection site in 2.7% of participants after the first dose. Between 2% and 9.7% of participants reported fatigue, muscle pain, joint pain, headache, general pain, and pain / redness at the injection site after the second dose.
On Dec. 15, FDA briefing documents said Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine “met pre-specific success criteria” in clinical trials. Two days later, an advisory committee said the benefits of the vaccine outweigh its risks in a 20-0 vote. A panelist abstained.
The coronavirus vaccine was cleared the next day.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novavax (NVAX) recently reported the results of phase 3 of its rival coronavirus vaccines. The J&J single vaccine was 66% effective in preventing Covid-19. Novavax’s two-shot regimen was 89.3% effective against the virus.
And Moderna is not the only company that uses mRNA technology. BioNTech is also a pioneer in mRNA. I Translate Bio (TBIO) also adopts an mRNA approach for the Covid-19 vaccine with which it is developing in collaboration Sanofi (CUT DOWN).
So are Moderna’s shares a buy right now?
Modern stocks are not a buy right now.
Shares fell well below their entry on February 1, prompting a sell-off rule. CAN SLIM investors are advised to buy a stock when they have settled a point of purchase and are within the 5% chase zone.
The company has managed to gather two-quarters of three-digit sales growth. It is expected to continue in the future. In addition, in early 2021, Moderna is expected to be solidly profitable.
On February 3, modern stocks were well above their 50- and 200-day moving lines.
The shares have a bullish RS rating, but the company’s composite rating is not among the top levels of stocks.
It will be important to note Moderna’s efforts to distribute her coronavirus vaccine. This could help obtain both the shares of MRNA and the finances of the biotechnology company.
To find the best stocks to buy and view, check out the IBD stock lists. Be sure to keep stocks to buy or sell as well.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
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