NC weather: risk of wind damage, strong storms rose to level 4 of 5 by Thursday in Raleigh and the rest of central North Carolina

RALEIGH, NC (WTVD): A warmer, relatively clear Wednesday will give way to a potentially dangerous Thursday.

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On Thursday afternoon, severe weather is expected to hit central North Carolina as it moves south deep on Wednesday.

New meteorological models caused the National Meteorological Service to increase the risk of severe to moderate to moderate weather. This is an uncommon level of risk.

The last time central North Carolina had a moderate risk of severe weather the day before the storms arrived was in late December 2012. Although, to be honest, that severe risk fell . The storms that arrived did not cause any serious damage.

The exact timing of the storms continues to change, but the first alert team said the latest information suggests most of the storms will arrive in the mid-afternoon and disappear in the early evening.

The probability of harmful wind is at the highest possible level of risk. There is an almost 45 percent chance that harmful straight-line wind will pass somewhere in central North Carolina. This means gusts of wind between 70 and 90 miles per hour.

The threat of the tornado is less likely, but it is still possible. The threat level is moderate, which translates into a 15% chance that an EF2-EF5 tornado could occur.

Localized flooding and hail are also possible with the system.

SEE: Big Weather breaks the most likely scenarios of Thursday’s storm

Something to watch out for is Thursday morning. That was when we were able to see some scattered showers before the arrival of the strong storms.

The presence of showers Thursday morning would be a good sign, according to ABC11 meteorologist Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker. He said the morning showers would help stabilize the atmosphere, which in turn could reduce the severity of the storms when they arrive later.

GMA’s Ginger Zee joins Severe Weather City Hall’s first alert team