Mutated versions of the coronavirus threaten to prolong the pandemic, perhaps for years, killing more people and deepening the global economic crisis of the process.
The big picture: The United States and the world are in a race to control the virus before these variants can be further established. But many experts say they already expect things to get worse before they get better. And that also means the end of the pandemic may be receding.
- “It may take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a post-COVID normalcy, ”Singapore’s education minister said last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Where is it: “There are basically two separate COVID-19 epidemics,” Dutch officials said recently, referring to the original strain of COVID-19 and the growing threat of mutated versions of the virus.
- There is light at the end of the tunnel for the first epidemic. Although the virus continues to spread uncontrollably across the United States and much of the world, cases and hospitalizations have dropped from their peak and vaccinations are steadily increasing.
- But the next iteration, fueled by virus variants, is already consolidating.
What follows: A British variant of the coronavirus is likely to become the dominant strain in the United States soon, experts say. It is significantly more contagious than the virus we have treated so far, and some researchers believe it can also be 30% more deadly.
- “This hurricane is coming,” Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota and Biden’s transition advisor, told Sunday on “Meet the Press.”
- A more contagious and more lethal strain of the virus could make cases, hospitalizations and deaths easily rise to record levels, even as vaccinations continue to rise.
“We’re going to see something we haven’t seen in this country yet, ”Osterholm said.
Vaccines work against the British variant, and will help control its spread, just as they will help control the pandemic in general.
- But vaccinations can only increase so quickly. The Biden administration is trying to throw the doses out the door as quickly as possible, but there is a very good chance that the most contagious virus will move faster.
- Existing vaccines do not appear to work as well against some other variants, including one of particular concern identified for the first time in South Africa. They work and seem to prevent serious illness and death, which are the most important things, but they may not prevent so many infections in general.
- Vaccine makers can rework their prescriptions and make booster injections to help treat more resistant strains, but that will take time.
How it works: All of these problems stem from the same underlying problem: the uncontrolled spread of the virus.
- More cases mean more hospitalizations and more deaths. Larger outbreaks also offer more opportunities for mutations to arise and spread.
- A more transmissible virus means that a larger portion of the population (perhaps up to 85%) should be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. It will be a stretch, given the widespread hesitation of the vaccine across the country.
Because vaccine production still increasing, controlling things well enough to start a second phase of the pandemic, it would have to depend heavily on social distancing and the use of masks.
- This is not a very promising position, especially for a country like the US
The summary: Vaccines work and remain the key to ending this pandemic. But relying on them almost exclusively only makes work difficult and will likely prolong this pandemic for years.