What you need to know
- The delta variant now accounts for 97% of all New York samples tested in the past four weeks, although for the second week in a row, transmission rates appear to be declining, according to new health data Friday.
- The five counties of New York are still considered high transmission areas by the CDC, but hospitalization rates are declining in all five districts and transmission rates are declining in three of the five.
- The national picture is gloomier: The United States reported more than 2,000 daily deaths from COVID (2,152) for the first time since early March, with a maximum of five months, according to NBC News
The highly contagious delta variant continues to spread across New York City, now accounting for 97% of all positive samples tested, but for the second week in a row, transmission speeds are slowing, a sign that the latest wave may be turning at the corner. The national picture, however, remains more bleak.
Citywide transmission rates have fallen 7% since last week, while the daily average of cases is stable. The average continued hospitalization has dropped 14% compared to the average of the previous four weeks, perhaps the strongest indication that the five municipalities could come out of the ten-week hike fueled by the delta.
Mortality rates are up slightly, according to the latest city data, but fatalities are a lagging indicator. As New Yorkers saw painfully in the spring of 2020 and, to a lesser extent, in the winter wave, before the deployment of vaccinations, mortality rates continue to rise well after the end of new daily cases.
The fact that hospitalizations are now declining is a strong hope that soon the recent increases in daily deaths will also be balanced.
The five neighborhoods in New York City are still considered high-transmission areas by the CDC, meaning they have at least 100 new daily cases per 100,000 residents, but CDC data show that hospitalization rates for five neighborhoods have declined in double-digit percentage points over the past seven days.
Transmission rates are declining in three of the five municipalities. Over the past seven days, they have fallen 16.7% in Manhattan, 8.3% in Queens and 13.2% on Staten Island, according to the CDC. Increasing marginally in Brooklyn (0.23%) and more in the Bronx (3.96%), viral spread is likely to be related to cases in areas of low vaccination rate.
For New York City, the sole epicenter of the pandemic, the rise of the delta may have peaked. Across the country, it’s a different picture.
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More than 92% of all U.S. counties fall into this “high transmission” rate category, an increase of 5.6% over the past seven days, according to the CDC. Another 4.16% of U.S. counties are considered “substantial transmission” rate areas. According to the CDC guide, this means that it is recommended to wear universal interior masks in more than 96% of all counties in America regardless of vaccination status.
Lower vaccination rate indices, such as Texas and Kentucky, continue to see COVID hospitalizations rise amid an increase in the number of children.
On Thursday, the United States reported more than 2,000 daily deaths from COVID for the first time since early March, according to NBC News. At least 2,152 deaths were recorded on Thursday. The last time the U.S. daily toll exceeded 2,000 was on March 5, with 2,235 lives lost due to COVID-19, according to the data.
According to the nation’s most watched prediction model, the U.S. is projected to record nearly 100,000 deaths from COVID-19 more by December 1. But health experts say the toll could be halved with some behavioral changes.
Vaccination rates reported to the CDC have been steadily rising since mid-July, when officials at all levels of government called on non-vaccinated people to get vaccinated, citing the delta threat. This variant has been linked to more severe outcomes and deaths, especially among unvaccinated, and accounts for nearly 99% of all CDC-tested samples in the last two-week period.
Vaccination efforts seem to be working, also in part thanks to new measures that are increasingly closing the daily lives of the unvaccinated. The number of doses administered daily in New York doubled this month compared to July, but doctors say it will be several weeks until the last increase in hospitalizations is achieved.
New data released by New York City this week suggests that vaccines are very effective in preventing COVID infection and are even more infectious in preventing serious illness and death. A study published by the Department of Health found that 0.33% of new COVID cases in the city between January 17 and August 7 were advanced infections, meaning people who had been completely vaccinated went contract the virus, although that study considered months of data recorded before the delta variant had strangled control over the city.
When NBC 4 New York asked Mayor Bill de Blasio if the data was too biased in pre-delta conditions and therefore misleading, he said, “Clearly unvaccinated people are in real danger and vaccinated people are protected. We must continue to show people these facts. “
City health officials noted that “the most recent data show that the rate of gross cases of unvaccinated people remains 3.1 times higher than that of fully vaccinated people.”
The study also found that unvaccinated people were 13 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID than those who were fully vaccinated.