SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – After giving the Biden administration silent treatment for two months, North Korea gathered two powerful women this week to warn Washington about combined military exercises with South Korea and the diplomatic consequences of its “hostile” policies towards Pyongyang.
However, frustration and belligerence can be an opening.
North Korea’s first comments on the new U.S. government, while full of angry rhetoric, can be seen as the start of a diplomatic back and forth as North Angles are back in negotiations. stagnant destined to harness their nuclear weapons for much-needed economic needs. benefits.
The timing of North Korea’s statements was carefully chosen, with comments grounded on the front pages and news, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin traveled in Asia to talk with US allies Tokyo and Seoul about the North Korean threat and other regional challenges.
Whether negotiations can take place may depend on the review of the Biden administration’s policy on North Korea, which is expected to be completed in the coming weeks.
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WHAT NORTH KOREA SAYS
On Tuesday, Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister denounced the latest US and South Korean military exercises, which were scheduled to end a nine-day race on Thursday.
Describing the exercises as an invasion trial, Kim Yo Jong warned Washington to “refrain from stinking” if it wants to “sleep in peace” for the next four years.
North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Sun Hui said in a statement on Thursday that the North will continue to ignore U.S. talks offers unless it abandons what the North describes as hostile policies.
Choe responded to Blinken’s comments this week that Washington reached the north through various channels as of mid-February, but has received no response.
“What has been heard from the United States since the emergence of the new regime is just a crazy theory of ‘the North Korean threat’ and unfounded rhetoric about ‘complete denuclearization,'” Choe said. , calling American deals “talkative.” delay trick. “
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WHAT PYONGYANG WANTS
Choe’s statement could be an attempt by the North to create an environment to reintroduce nuclear negotiations from a position of strength, according to Shin Beomchul, an analyst at Korea’s Seoul-based National Strategy Research Institute.
Negotiations between Washington and Seoul have stalled for more than two years since the collapse of the nuclear summit between Kim Jong Un and former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2019. The two sides did not agree. agreement on the details of a disarmament sanctions relief exchange plan. Pyongyang has repeatedly stated that it will not hold meaningful talks while Washington persists with sanctions and pressure.
“It is clear that the North is trying to strengthen its bargaining power,” Shin said.
But North Korea could also be preparing to get tougher words for the Biden administration over Blinken’s repeated condemnation of the North’s human rights record in Seoul, which Trump largely ignored while pursuing media summits. with Kim. This could complicate any future negotiations
The North is extremely sensitive to external criticism of its abysmal human rights conditions, which it considers an attack on its leadership, and Choe’s statement seemed elaborate before the North could decide a response to Blinken’s statements.
“There will probably be serious opposition from the north” on Blinken’s human rights comments, said Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University.
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TALKS AND PRESSURE
Most experts agree that the North will eventually try to return to negotiations to try to win aid, but differ on when and what it would take for talks to resume.
Recently, Kim has been challenged to move toward a nuclear arsenal that she considers her strongest guarantee of survival. He has also urged his people to be resilient in the fight for economic self-sufficiency as he launches a new multi-year plan to save his broken economy.
The fact that Kim is focusing on his domestic economic momentum may mean the North stays away from talks for another year and returns only after it becomes clear that Kim’s new policies will fail, Shin said.
“If North Korea is really desperate for a speedy resumption of talks, they would test an intercontinental ballistic missile by April 15,” the birthday of Kim’s founding grandfather, Kim Il Sung, to pressure Washington to the conversations, Shin said.
But he said the North is more likely to avoid provoking the Biden administration and inviting more pressure, because Kim’s priority is to quietly cement his country as nuclear power, which is also a key purpose of his economic boost. intern.
The North could still try to conduct short-range test launches that threaten South Korea, but not the American homeland. But, Shin said, “they will keep any dramatic action pending at least until the review of North Korea’s Biden administration policy is completed.”
Kim has to navigate the complicated relationship with Washington as her nation faces sanctions, pandemic border closures and natural disasters that cause the harvest that could push the north toward worse economic instability.
Whatever move the North makes, its recent messages indicate it will not return to talks unless the United States offers at least some level of sanctions relief. This, however, is unlikely to happen without a significant reduction in Kim’s nuclear capabilities.