Russia’s opponents in Central and Eastern Europe are worried about President Biden being unwilling to fight hard to stop the Russia-Germany North Stream 2 gas pipeline, one of Vladimir Putin’s top priorities.
Why it’s important: The fight is the first significant test of whether Biden’s harsh rhetoric against the Russian leader will be matched by action. Russian opponents fear Biden will not want to counter Angela Merkel and will not inflict heavy costs on the Germans.
The big picture: The completion of Nord Stream 2 would be a huge geopolitical victory for Putin and give him a substantial new leverage in Europe. Russia has cut off the supply of natural gas to Ukraine as compensation in disputes.
- Ignoring Ukraine with a direct pipeline to Germany helps Russia advance its goal of isolating its former client state, now a struggling democracy, from Western Europe.
- Currently, Russian gas has to pass through Ukraine on its way to Europe.
- The pipeline is more than 90% complete and could be finished in the summer without major intervention to stop it.
Driving the news: So far messages of concern have been conveyed to Americans in private. But on Monday, a source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios: “Ukrainians are a little disappointed that President Biden did not commit during Munich. [Security] Conference to use all the tools at your disposal to stop Nord Stream 2. ”
- “But it is not too late,” the source close to Zelensky added, “for the US to take decisive action and the Ukrainians expect the Biden administration to do so.”
The comments follow something unusual joint public statement on Monday by the Polish and Ukrainian governments.
- Polish and Ukrainian foreign ministers co-authored a publication published in Politico Europe urging Biden to follow the example of the US Congress and do everything it could to block the pipeline.
- “We call on the President of the United States, Joe Biden, to use all means at his disposal to prevent the project from ending,” the ministers wrote.
- State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement: “The Biden administration is committed to using all available tools to combat Russia’s malignant influence and support transatlantic energy security goals.”
- Added price: “We have made it clear that companies risk sanctions if they participate in the Nord Stream 2 project. We continue to examine entities involved in potentially sanctionable activities.”
Behind the scenes: On Friday, the State Department submitted a mandatory report to Congress that allegedly had to list all the ships involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2, as well as the insurance companies or other companies involved in the pipeline.
- According to the Wall Street Journal, the report did not name any new companies that would be subject to U.S. sanctions and confirmed to Axios a source who read the report, which has not been published publicly.
Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, condemned the report as weak and incomplete.
- “Maritime tracking information makes it clear that ships that are not included in today’s report are currently active in supporting the construction of Nord Stream 2,” Risch said in a statement. He demanded an “immediate explanation” from the Biden administration.
- Senator Jeanne Shaheen (DN.H.) also said the Biden administration should do more to stop the pipeline and hoped to be informed of “additional measures.”
Between lines: American partners in Central and Eastern Europe want Biden to make it clear that he is willing to do whatever it takes to prevent the pipeline from ending.
- This would include sanctioning the entire construction fleet and signaling a willingness to sanction German utility companies that would be receiving Russian energy.
- President Trump even included trade threats against Merkel as part of his tough tactics to stop Nord Stream 2.
- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also paved the way for a wider range of sanctions, saying last summer sounded “a clear warning to companies that help and incite malicious influence projects. Russia that will not be tolerated … Get out now, or risk the consequences “.
- Construction of Nord Stream 2 stopped during the Trump presidency.
As the Biden team has said the pipeline is a “bad deal” and they want to stop it, the administration has done little so far to suggest it is willing to bow to the fight.
- It seems that the Russians have noticed. Major works on Nord Stream 2 resumed after Biden took office.