The 2021 NFL draft begins in nine days and there are five exciting possible quarterbacks that look like they will be going to the first round soon. History tells us, however, that only two of those five will make it to the NFL.
Yes, that’s right. This is me that boy – The boy who drops the traffic of reality into the fist bowl of previous excitement. As they shrink 1 inch, expectations skyrocket. All fans of all teams see the draft as a salvation – the annual event that will turn their sad franchise around or provide the last piece that is sure to turn their great team into a champion.
While all of this is part of the fun, it’s not really what will happen. Or at least it’s not what generally passes. History tells us that a first-round selection is unlikely to reach a second contract with your favorite team statistically. And if your team picks up a quarterback, history tells us it only has a 42.2% chance of reaching that second contract.
“Ah, yes?” you ask. “What story is it, exactly?” – and I’ll tell you. Thanks to the researcher Paul Hembekides and people who have problems at ESPN Stats & Information, we have data from all the first rounds from 2000 to 2016 (all 540) and whether or not they came to a second contract with the team that drafted them. In all, 232 of the 540 were re-signed by the team that drafted them at the end of their rookie contracts. True: about 43%. Keep in mind that these are first round options, not the whole project. This is the most important round, the round that gets the glory. And even in this round, the data indicates that teams have less than a 50% chance of hitting.
Really rough reality check, right?
“There are a lot of things that can’t be controlled,” said an NFC office executive who preferred not to be identified because basically no one he wants to catch himself talking about the draft this time of year. “You’re entering 20 years into money you’ve never seen before, and that will automatically introduce the distraction of what has brought them to the point where they are. There are injuries, of course. There are changes in the system. I mean, some quarterbacks never get a wrong opportunity. Change system, change coach, sometimes two or three times during that rookie contract, and you have to consider it more of an organizational failure than a failure of the prospect himself. “
Reasonable point, as we observe the case of the Jets. Three years ago, they switched from number 6 to number 3 on the project to take Sam Darnold. They fired coach Todd Bowles and general manager Mike MacCagnan after Darnold’s first year and fired coach Adam Gase after his third. They pick second place in this year’s draft and have just changed Darnold to the Panthers because they have decided to draft their replacement.
Darnold is not even part of our ESPN Stats & Info study, because it was drafted in 2018. These numbers only run until 2016, because it’s too early to know for sure if all the guys drafted in 2017 or later they will reach second contracts. This is the season in which your fifth year options will be decided. Fifteen of the top 32 players in the 2017 category are no longer part of the teams that drafted them and Darnold is the second of five quarterbacks who participated in the first round in 2018 and has already been changed and replaced. These drafts are not much better than the 17 we examined for this article.
When studying the drafts from 2000 to 16, we found some differences by position. It seems that offensive line players are the most likely to succeed in the first round. Of the 55 offensive attacks taken in the first round from 2000 to 16, 33 were obtained under contracts with the teams that drafted them. This is 60%. Twelve of the 26 first-round guards (46.2%) and nine first-round centers (100%) made it. Linebacker is also a relatively safe option, as 54.8% (23 of 42) of the drafted were re-signed on second contracts. But man, then it’s ugly.
Did you get excited about all the wide receivers available for your team in the first round this year? Not so fast, my friend. Broad receptors were the highest rated group in this study. Of the 70 receivers drafted between 2000 and 16, only 19 secured contracts with the team that drafted them. And that includes Odell Beckham Jr. and Tavon Austin, who did not exactly become the legendary Giants or Rams. For every Calvin Johnson, there is a Kevin White. For each Julio Jones, one AJ Jenkins. This doesn’t mean your team doesn’t have to choose a wide receiver ahead of time (superstar stretches are extremely valuable, after all), just that any individual choice is relative.
The next worst group in this study is the defensive attack (35.3%) and then the corner (35.5%). Part of this could be attributed to a poor system fit.
“When you ask players to do exactly the same thing they did in college, they’ll probably be fine,” said former Jets and Dolphins GM (and current ESPN NFL analyst) Mike Tannenbaum. “When you ask them to do something different, it’s when you take out the unknowns and the risk increases.”
Are there teams that have been more successful than others in retaining their first round? Yes, but remember that this is only a 17-year-old sample and teams usually have a first-round selection a year. That said, the Cowboys signed 73.3% (11 of 15) from the first round of the first round of 2000-16 to the second contracts. They are closely followed by the Panthers and Texans at 68.8% (both 11 of 16), the Eagles at 60% (9 of 15) and the Steelers at 58.82% (10 of 17).
At the bottom of the list are the Broncos and Jaguars, each of whom made 17 first-round picks during this stretch and signed only four-second contracts (23.5%). Others at the bottom include the Browns and Lions with 25% (every 5 of 20) and the Cardinals and Bills with 27.8% (every 5 of 18).
So what about quarterbacks? 45 were made in the 17 drafts of 2000-16, and 19 of these (42.2%) were obtained according to contracts of the teams that drafted them. This includes Vice Presidents Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. It includes Super Bowl champions Eli Manning, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger. But it also includes Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the top two draft picks of 2016, who were changed during this offseason from the teams that drafted them, even before their second contracts began.
Does it matter to what extent they are chosen? Sort of. Nine of the 12 quarterbacks selected with the No. 1 selection from these drafts were awarded under contracts with the teams that selected them. (Those who were not JaMarcus Russell, Sam Bradford and Jameis Winston.) Only one of the three who were chosen number 2 got one (Wentz). Only one of the four who went to number 3 got one (Ryan). Philip Rivers, who was named No. 4 in 2004, won one. They are 12 of the 19 in general. Finding a Roethlisberger at number 11 or a Rodgers at number 24 is basically like finding a golden ticket at your Wonka bar.
1:06
Mina Kimes explains why she thinks Trey Lance is the most exciting quarterback in the draft.
The problem is that so much is explained if a quarterback is successful in the NFL. It’s about more than just the player’s ability and mental makeup. It often comes down to the situation. What kind of equipment is built around it? How much time do you need to be ready to play and how much time do you have left? Who will train him? How much more will you be asked than you were asked in college, and how will you do it?
“In college, you see guys looking to the side for every play of the coaching staff,” Tannenbaum said. “In the NFL, with 15 seconds left in the game, this communication between the coach and the quarterback is disrupted. If you don’t have the chance to get into the right game yourself, it’s hard to be a successful quarterback in the game. NFL “.
All this is difficult. That’s what too many people forget and everyone should remember on April 29 when Roger Goodell calls names and fans party or chairs depending on whether or not they like the selection. It’s not about choosing the right man and plugging him in. It’s about choosing the right man, putting the right structure in place to make sure it works, and hoping nothing goes wrong to put it aside. Add it all up and it’s easy to see why most first-round picks don’t get it. And why the first night of the draft is just the beginning of a long process involved that will determine if they do.