Odds makers had been contemplating for days what the line would be for an AFC championship game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. However, on Sunday afternoon, after establishing the match, the opening line fluctuated in a disorderly manner, from Chiefs -4 to Bills -2.5, to sports betting all over the world. world.
This is what caused Patrick Muhammad’s injury in the betting market, and that’s just the beginning.
On Sunday night, the line had been set with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites, with some books at -3. You are unlikely to stay there.
Muhammad left the Chiefs ’22-17 victory over the Cleveland Browns in the second half with a concussion. His status for the AFC championship game went on the air around Monday. If you play, the line will surely grow. If he is out, Buffalo could end up being favored and the Green Bay Packers could become Super Bowl favorites.
“If Muhammad were ruled out, the Bills would be a decent favorite,” John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, said Sunday night, noting that some of its odds creators projected a line as high as Buffalo. -7 if backed up Chad Henne leaves for the Chiefs instead of Muhammad. “That seems a bit extreme to me, but it gives you an idea of the amount of spending going from Muhammad to Henne, in terms of the distribution of the point.”
Johnny Avello, DraftKings ’director of sports books, hoped the Chiefs would continue to be the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but he knows the difference has narrowed significantly with Muhammad’s injury.
“They will remain the favorites, but it will shrink a bit,” Avello said.
On Sunday night, William Hill’s U.S. sports books had the Chiefs at +200 to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Packers at +225, Bills +300 and Buccaneers +400. But many could change this week.
In the meantime, here are the notable bets.
NFL
• Sunday night, the Packers were a 4-point consensus favorite over the Buccaneers in the NFC championship game. The SuperBook opened Green Bay at -4.5 and quickly took money with the Buccaneers, who lost the number, down to -4.
• In the AFC championship game, most of the first bets were on SuperBook bills. “Even though the biggest bet so far was one of $ 20,000 to Chiefs -3 (pairs),” Murray said. “The public likes these two teams, even though the bosses continue to drop the bettors. Today they have not been able to cover again.”
• The Chiefs have been unable to cover the difference in eight of their last nine games.
• Late money was presented to the Browns before the initial Sunday. The line, which had fluctuated between Kansas City -10 and -9.5 all week, fell to -7.5 before the start. The SuperBook reported that it had taken strong money to Cleveland, as the entire market was heading toward Browns contempt.
“The difference between 7.5 and 9.5 isn’t that big,” Avello of DrafKings said. “I don’t know why this thing fell apart. I can’t explain why they took nine, eight and a half and eight.”
At Circa Sports, a Las Vegas sportsbook known for catering to professional gamblers, there were more bets in Kansas City, but more money was wagered in Cleveland.
“All the big bets we keep making are about the Browns,” Matt Metcalf, director of sports books at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, told ESPN before Sunday’s game. “Someone just took it [Cleveland plus] 8 a minute ago. “
• The Chiefs took the lead 22-10 with just over 11 minutes left when Muhammad was officially ruled out for the rest of the match. Kansas City was a big favorite at the time, -900 to win the game directly. After a Browns touchdown reduced the lead to 22-17 and Muhammad was ruled out, the live odds shifted to Chiefs -500.
• The most popular player proposal in the Browns-Chiefs game at the Tipico sports store in New Jersey was under-260.5 in Baker Mayfield’s passing yards, which accounted for 50% of the action of the book on player accessories.
• The Buccaneers-Saints game on Sunday was the most bet game of the weekend for various sports betting.
• A punter with PointsBet bets made a bet of $ 5,400 per point on the Bills -3.5 against the Ravens. In this example, the point bet, commonly known as a points bet, was based on the number of points for which the invoices covered the spread. They covered the spread by 11.5 points and the bettor earned $ 56,700 net.
• Saturday’s Rams-Packers game was considered by some to be a “Pros vs. Joes” game. The lower Rams attracted the betting interest of professional bettors to +7. The line dropped to Green Bay -6.5 and remained there for most of the week, despite disproportionate bets on the Packers favorites. At the beginning of PointsBet, 82% of the bets and 89% of the money wagered went to Green Bay. The Packers won and covered the 32-18 spread.
NBA
Networking favorites at the Eastern Conference after the Harden trade
Following the acquisition of James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets moved to the Milwaukee Bucks and are now the Eastern Conference favorites. But some odds makers aren’t selling to the new NBA super team yet.
The Nets ’title chances improved from 12-1 to 7-2 last week on the SuperBook. Jeff Sherman, who oversees the Superbook’s NBA odds, began shortening Brooklyn’s title odds last Tuesday after Harden told reporters he didn’t think the situation in Houston was solvable. Sherman first reduced the Nets ’odds to 8-1, then to 6-1 before going 7-2 after the negotiation.
Only the Los Angeles Lakers have better title odds than the Nets, who drew big bets on the SuperBook during the preseason and more recently, including a $ 10,000 bet in December. The Bucks have the second-best Eastern Conference lead at 8-1, followed by the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers at 20-1.
“I don’t have as much separation between them and some of the other Eastern teams, as the title odds indicate,” Sherman said. “When you see the 7-2 in the Nets and the 8-1 in the Bucks and the Heat, the Celtics and the Sixers in the 20-1, I don’t think, per game, it makes such a difference that what it does seems to be based on the title probabilities. “
Sherman said his power ratings on the networks aren’t troubling for now as he waits to see how Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Harden develop chemistry.
“They can talk about a good game any way they want, but we don’t know how the chemistry will turn out,” Sherman said. “There have already been these rumors that Irving wasn’t happy with the Nets behind the scenes. Will that make him more unhappy?”
Three questions
… with Scott Butera, co-CEO of sports betting platform Vigtory, who last week announced intentions to acquire them for the fuboTV live TV streaming platform. The acquisition deal is in the final stages and when it is finalized, fuboTV expects to launch a sports box before the end of the year.
Q: What view do you have of the product that will come out of the fuboTV-Vigtory deal?
A: I think it’s very powerful to be able to watch sports live, make transactions and bet on sports. I also think it provides us with a huge reach in terms of reach and customer acquisition. We will announce the product at the right time, but the idea is that you have a kind of simultaneous experience between consuming sports, watching sports and being able to bet on doing sports and practicing sports. It could be betting, it could be merchandise, getting tickets. I think the whole idea is to create these multi-faceted global entertainment experiences. We find that there is a lot of synergy between the two.
Q: What are the obstacles to launching this service?
A: In terms of obstacles, clearly, like any other operator, we will have a state deployment plan. We are up to our knees. Getting the right legislation passed in jurisdictions you haven’t yet passed. I think these things will evolve over time. I think this combination [with fuboTV] it helps us overcome them a lot, and I think there are many different ways to reach markets that are beyond the traditional ways that sports betting would have, whether through streaming services or other products that we can introduce. they don’t necessarily have the same regulatory challenges as sports betting right now. In fact, it helps us get rid of a lot of them.
Q: The approach announced by Vigtory in sports betting was to offer a low-stakes sports betting option. Is this still the plan?
A: Our plan was always to have a really great product and great value. We want to have exceptional technology, exceptional experiences and we want to have good value. And value is not necessarily defined by price; it is defined by what you get for what you paid for and that has always been our goal.