Now, let’s see, was it that hard?
Three days ago he warned that he would not advise vaccinated people to go out to eat or to the movies, not because it is dangerous for them, but because it is potentially dangerous for the majority of the population who have not yet been vaccinated and with whom they would mix. in these public spaces. Vaccinated people * could * spread * the virus, even if they are spreading it less than an unvaccinated person would.
Sure, though, in the name of giving people who have done their duty to recover from the misery of pandemic isolation, we could encourage those who have been vaccinated to meet with others who have been vaccinated. All right, yes, beware of strangers, as they may be vulnerable to infection, but if you know that all participants in an upcoming social engagement have been vaccinated, why the hell shouldn’t they continue?
Last night, in an interview with CNN, Fauci agreed. Why not? “While it’s not backed by data,” he said of vaccinated people who socialize safely, “it’s backed by common sense.” Which is true, and also (finally!) The right message in giving Americans who are on the fence to get their shots a behavioral incentive to take the plunge. Want to have a short-term dinner with eight to ten close friends? No problem. You will all know what to do.
Jump here at 5:30 of the clip and watch:
Dr. Anthony Fauci urges all Americans to get vaccinated as soon as it touches them, promising that there will be “benefits both socially and personally and from a public health standpoint.” https://t.co/4hzSawki9u pic.twitter.com/FAmROWkwPm
– CNN (@CNN) February 26, 2021
The key bit using the Daily Wire:
“I’m vaccinated, my wife vaccinated, my daughters vaccinated,” he continued. “Before the vaccination, if they want to come and visit you, they should put a quarantine for a while, get tested and wear a mask. What we’re saying right now, while not backed by data, is backed by common sense that if you have two people vaccinated and want to get together, be it family members or friends you know. vaccinated, they can begin to receive, as individuals, although the risk is not zero. The risk becomes extremely low when both parties are vaccinated. So we’re going to start seeing people say, “Hey, the more people get vaccinated, the more I can have dinner with my family member coming in.”
It seems suspicious for Fauci to say, “Anything that ends up formally recommended by the CDC, we know vaccinated people will come together and we know it’s safe.” So there is your unofficial guidance. For once, experts are not selling the vaccine little.
Coincidentally, he said this within twelve hours of the publication of new data from the University of Cambridge showing that even a dose of Pfizer vaccine substantially reduces the risk of transmission. We already had evidence from Israel that a single dose drastically reduces the chances of symptomatic disease, but Cambridge data suggest that it also reduces the chance of asymptomatic infection:
Findings at Cambridge’s Addenbrooke Hospital indicated 75% protection against Covid-19.
The results also point to a four-fold decrease in the risk of asymptomatic covid infection among vaccinated health workers for more than 12 days, suggesting that the first dose will significantly reduce the spread of the virus …
Dr Mike Weekes, an infectious disease specialist in the Cambridge University Department of Medicine, who co-led the study, hailed the results as “great news”.
He said: “The Pfizer vaccine not only provides protection against SARS-CoV-2 disease, but also it also helps prevent infection, reducing the potential for transmitting the virus to other people“.
This is what Fauci means by common sense in allowing vaccinated people to socialize with each other. If each of them is protected mainly not only against the disease, but against the infection, mental well-being benefits from letting them resume a certain degree of normalcy that clearly outweighs the risk of transmission that may occur during the encounter.
It’s worth watching the full interview if you have the time, as he’s willing to point out that people shouldn’t put up with Cadillac vaccines (Pfizer and Modern) if the only one available locally is a Lincoln (Johnson & Johnson) . Pfizer and Moderna seem to be a little more effective than J&J, but ultimately nothing is more effective at preventing infections than herd immunity. The faster we get there, the more lives are saved, which means that the administration of the vaccine * to * as many people as possible is the best strategy to limit the risk of each individual, although not all of them. vaccines are just as potent. In fact, a public health researcher built a computer model to test this theory and felt confident:
Consider an example: Suppose the United States was able to completely vaccinate a million people a day, with a vaccine with 90% effectiveness (on what is happening so far) and that they continued until the 60s. % of the population was completely vaccinated. At this rate, it would take about six and a half months.
For comparison, we consider a scenario in which people are completely vaccinated at a faster rate of 1.5 million per day with a vaccine of less than about 70 percent effective, until 60 percent of the population is completely vaccinated. At a faster rate, this would take about four months.
We found that this faster scenario with the less effective vaccine could end up preventing, on average, more than 1.38 million more cases, more than 51,000 more hospitalizations, and more than 6,000 more deaths than the slower vaccine scenario. and of higher efficiency. This underscores the importance of vaccinating the majority of the population as soon as possible to curb the spread of the virus.
Anyone who picks up a Cadillac because they believe a Lincoln is not entirely in the same league puts themselves and those around them at unnecessary risk. The best protection we all have, including the scary variants that have yet to be developed, is to shut down all transmission vectors as quickly as we can and deny the virus additional opportunities to mutate. Every new vaccine that goes on the market makes it easier. Coincidentally, the FDA’s committee of external experts is meeting this afternoon to hope to give a final finger to J&J before the agency’s approval this weekend.
By the way, keep in mind what Fauci says at one point about shooting a single dose of Johnson & Johnson. That * can * eventually become a dose dispenser, especially if a new variant is launched, as one of the strategies for dealing with a new dangerous variety is to simply “bombard” it with antibodies. Stay tuned.