In a prediction study, scientists found that 34% of the surface of all Antarctic ice shelves, which measured approximately half a million square kilometers, could be destabilized if global temperatures rose 4 degrees. The researchers said approximately 67% of the surface of the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelf would be at risk of destabilization in this scenario.
Ice platforms are permanent floating ice platforms attached to areas of the coast, formed where glaciers coming out of the land meet the sea. They can help limit rising sea levels by acting as a dam and slowing the flow of ice and water melting into the oceans.
Every summer, the ice on the surface of the ice shelves melts and touches smaller gaps in the snow below, where it usually freezes. But when there is a lot of melting and little snow, this water clumps on the surface of the ice or empties into cracks. This deepens and widens the cracks, causing the shelf to collapse and collapse into the sea.
“Ice platforms are important buffers that prevent the earth’s glaciers from flowing freely into the ocean and contributing to rising sea levels. When they sink, it’s like a giant cork retreating from a bottle, which allows you to pour unimaginable amounts of water from glaciers into the sea, “said lead author Ella Gilbert, a climate scientist in the University of Reading’s Department of Meteorology, in a statement.
Gilbert told CNN that low-lying coastal areas, especially small island states like Vanuatu and Tuvalu in the South Pacific Ocean, are at the highest risk of rising world sea levels.
“However, coastal areas around the world would be vulnerable and countries with fewer resources available to mitigate and adapt to rising sea levels will see worse consequences,” he said.
In the new study, which used high-resolution regional climate models to predict the impact of increased melting and runoff of water on the stability of the ice shelf, researchers say limiting the Raising the temperature to 2 degrees Celsius instead of 4 degrees Celsius would reduce half the area at risk and potentially prevent a significant rise in sea level.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in a relevant report that we only have until 2030 to drastically reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and prevent the planet from reaching the crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit ) above pre-industrial levels.
Global net carbon dioxide emissions are expected to fall by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach “net zero” around 2050 to keep warming around 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“The findings highlight the importance of limiting global temperature increases as set out in the Paris Agreement if we are to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, including rising sea levels,” Gilbert added. .
In the Paris agreement, 197 countries agreed to keep global temperatures “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Gilbert told CNN that rising temperatures mean melting occurs more frequently and intensely.
The researchers identified four ice sheets that would be threatened by a warmer climate: the Larsen C, Shackleton, Pine Island and Wilkins ice shelves, vulnerable due to their geography, and the expected runoff in these areas.
Larsen C is the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Pine Island Glacier has received a lot of attention in recent years because it has been melting rapidly in response to climate change, Gilbert said.
If all the ice shelves collapsed, which is not guaranteed, the glaciers they currently contain would flow into the ocean, contributing to sea level rise, potentially by tens of centimeters, he explained.
The study was published Thursday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.