Ontario data show declines in coronavirus cases were reduced and delayed procedures are a major concern

The latest modeling data from the Ontario government suggests that advances in reducing coronavirus cases have stalled and deferred medical procedures are about to have a strong impact on the health care system.

“The decreases in community cases and the positivity of the test have been reduced. Cases are on the rise in most public health units as we see increased mobility, “Dr Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of Ontario’s COVID-19 scientific advisory board, told reporters on Thursday afternoon.

“Variations of concern continue to spread across Ontario and our ability to control the rate of spread will determine whether we return to normal or face a third wave of infection.”

Officials said once again that the coming weeks will be “critical” in determining what restrictions there will be for the summer, noting that masking and distancing restrictions will be needed to control the spread of more contagious variants of COVID-19. .

“We know exactly what we need to do,” he said.

“While it’s difficult and I know everyone is at their limits, just a little more discipline with masking and distancing will help reduce cases.”

Projections estimated that in the next two to three weeks, COVID-19 rates could grow to 8,000 new cases a day at worst, depending on the distribution of variants.

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If public health measures are followed and restrictions are set to contain sudden spikes, projections indicate the rate could be maintained at just under 2,000 cases a day.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty right now and with that, a lot of risk and a lot of danger,” Brown said.

If case rates are allowed to rise again, he warned that there is still a danger that the Ontario hospital system will be overwhelmed.

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Even under an optimistic scenario, which sees an increase in “small” capacity, Brown said the province could still see 400 patients occupying weekly intensive care beds.

“It’s important to keep in mind that this is not (just) a small increase,” he said.

“It’s an increase over a system you already have that creates a challenge in accessing care.”

The COVID-19 scientific advisory table sounded the alarm for deferred care and lost the detection of other chronic diseases.

“There will be a substantial and prolonged increase in the need for care in all sectors. Our actions will now determine our ability to access care later,” Brown said.

For example, the presentation highlighted a previous “substantial” decline in cancer screening tests that will lead to “long-term consequences for cancer outcomes”.

If we examine the surgical backwardness of the province, the table reported that there were no surgical cases as of March 15, 2020. The total jumped to approximately 75,000 cases in May and that was when the program began. of surgical restart. In February, there were 227,410 cumulative cumulative surgical cases.

However, there was encouraging news in the province’s data.

Brown said COVID-19 vaccines in long-term care centers continue to bear fruit, with declining numbers of residents and staff cases. He also said the deaths have been flattened with the death of a resident in almost a week.

– With files from The Canadian Press

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