The number of Oregonians hospitalized with COVID-19 peaked on September 1st. But experts say the situation remains dire and hospitalization rates are likely to remain high for months.
“The good news is that we got to the maximum,” said Peter Graven of Oregon Health and Science University. “The bad news is that the model shows that it can take until the end of October or even November until we get to the levels we had before the climb.”
More than half of the intensive care units in Oregon are now full of COVID-19 patients, including the medical intensive care unit shown here at OHSU Hospital. A new OHSU forecast reveals that Oregon hospitals will remain under heavy stress for the next two to three months, with a gradual decline in hospitalizations for COVID-19.
Erin Hoover Barnett / OHSU
Oregon hospitals continue under extreme pressure. There are now about ten times more people hospitalized than in July. About half of all intensive care units in the state are full of COVID-19 patients, the vast majority of whom have not been vaccinated.
“It looks like we’re seeing the flattening of the cases we had been waiting for,” Graven said. “However, we are still projecting that it will be a long time before hospitalization levels return to more manageable levels.”
The new OHSU forecast shows that the virus spreads to approximately 27% of the Oregon population susceptible to infection, that is, those people who do not yet have immunity from vaccination or natural infection.
Graven said he is monitoring pediatric cases, especially when schools reopen throughout Oregon.
“Certainly, it is still possible to generate a further increase in serious diseases,” he said.
The hospitalization rate is also subject to change if another variant is taken advantage of or if people do not hesitate to get vaccinated.
Graven said the vaccination rate tends to increase in the areas most affected by the pandemic. But there is also a pattern of “fear of fatigue,” in which people are afraid to detect the virus and therefore take the necessary steps, get tired of following the steps to stop it, and the virus spreads again. -se.
Graven data shows that Oregonians are improving their response to the increase by increasing their use of masks to 84% as of Sept. 7. Their data also show moderate declines in behaviors such as going to large covered events. His hope is that, over time, Oregon will be able to achieve some kind of immunity in the herd where there are so many people previously vaccinated or sick with the virus, that COVID-19 can no longer be spread efficiently. .