Afghan nationals arrive at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossing point in Shaman on August 19, 2021 to return to Afghanistan.
AFP | Getty Images
Pakistan was one of the first countries to welcome the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan last month, following the collapse of the US-backed civilian government. Now, Islamabad has to worry about some of the consequences of the Taliban’s success alongside, former diplomats and political analysts said.
“Pakistan may not be as easy as its leaders might think,” Husain Haqqani, who was Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States between 2008 and 2011, told CNBC in a recent interview.
According to reports, Prime Minister Imran Khan said the Afghans had “broken the bonds of slavery.” Stranger Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Pakistani national security adviser Moeed Yusuf publicly urged the international community to commit to Afghanistan, which in essence now means the Taliban.
Pakistan, despite being an ally of the United States, had long been accused of covertly helping the Taliban during its 20-year insurgency in Afghanistan, a charge Islamabad denies.
What are the problems?
The main issue pointed out by Haqqani and others is the security risk posed by the national terrorist group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban: the group is separate from the Afghan Taliban. Last week, the TTP he reportedly claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Pakistan that killed at least three people and left 20 injured.
Haqqani assured that the group “will definitely be encouraged by the success of its brothers in Afghanistan.” “The Pakistani Taliban would like to replicate what happened in Afghanistan at least in the Pashtun areas of Pakistan, so that is one of the problems.”
It would be very difficult for Pakistan not to recognize the Taliban.
Husain Haqqani
former Pakistani ambassador to the US
The Pashtuns are an ethnic group originally from Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan. The disputed colonial era Durand Line, which forms the international land border between the countries, separates the Pashtun-dominated territories of Afghanistan. The latter claims these territories as part of a traditional Pashtun homeland.
According to the Foreign Affairs Council, Islamabad believes that the ideology of the Afghan Taliban emphasizes Islam over Pashtun identity. Both the Afghan Taliban and the TTP are mostly Pashtuns.
“Given the ties of the Afghan Taliban to the Pakistani Taliban (both operational and ideological), Pakistan really has to worry about the risks that a resurgent TTP poses to Pakistan,” said Madiha Afzal, a member of David M. Rubenstein on the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy program told CNBC.
“It has already seen some of these risks materialize with the release of TTP prisoners from prisons in Afghanistan in recent weeks, as well as an increase in attacks on Pakistani security forces,” Afzal said.
The Afghan Taliban have not yet denounced the TTP or recognized the Durand Line as the formal border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
International recognition
The Taliban have held diplomatic talks with several countries in their attempt at international recognition, including Pakistan. India, its biggest rival.
The militant group has tried to distance itself from its past brutalities as it tries to gain this global recognition, which could give them access to the international aid Afghanistan desperately needs. But many, including Haqqani, say they are not convinced by the Taliban’s guarantees.
“If the Taliban fail to achieve international recognition and there are sanctions against them, there will be consequences in Pakistan,” said Ambassador Haqqani, who is also director for the South and Central Asia Hudson Institute.
He explained that Pakistan would be forced to apply any international sanctions imposed on Afghanistan and that it would not be an easy task given the porosity of the international border. There is also “great sympathy for the Taliban in Pakistan,” Haqqani said.
Pakistan should also potentially struggle with a large influx of refugees if the situation in Afghanistan is destabilized due to future fighting between the Taliban and other insurgent groups, he added.
Afzal of Brookings added that Pakistan’s perception of proximity to the Taliban would also pose significant problems for its global reputation, after the country spent years trying to launch an image associated with terrorism. “This relationship with the Taliban, in particular, could strain Pakistan’s already troubled relationship with the United States,” he said.
What happens next?
The Taliban last week formed an exclusively male interim government.
Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said the incumbent government “is not the ideal outcome for Pakistan, which has been working to cultivate non-Pashtun support” in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry consulted with leaders of the former US-backed Northern Alliance on the possibility of joining a Taliban-led government, according to Eurasia Group. “But the Taliban have insisted that anyone who collaborates with the ’employment regime’ cannot hold a high position.”
The Northern Alliance was made up of a loose coalition of Afghan warlords who fought the Taliban in the late 1990s.
Islamabad has not yet formally recognized the Taliban as rulers of Afghanistan. Haqqani told CNBC that the delay is a political strategy where Pakistan hopes other countries will first recognize a Taliban-led Afghan government.
“It would be very difficult for Pakistan not to recognize the Taliban,” he said, adding that Islamabad could end in a “Pyrrhic victory.”
“The Americans are out and the government that was created through international support has disappeared. So Pakistan can really have influence in Afghanistan of the kind it wanted, without Afghanistan being a source. of destabilization in Pakistan? ” Haqqani added.