A major new poll on Trump voters in 2020 shows the divide they had over Social Security, Medicare, trade and tax cuts for the rich, while culture, religion and patriotism and the border between states United and Mexico were unifying issues.
Leading the news: The 1,000-vote YouGov poll, conducted last month and reviewed by Axios, reports a Friday forum on the future of the GOP hosted by the American Enterprise Institute and Ethics and Public Policy Center. It captures the thought of this powerful part of the base, not only post-election, but post-January. 6.
- “The challenge for Republicans after Trump is how to build on the conservative populist alliance, not rule out the populist side, ”said Henry Olsen, a senior member of the EPPC, who led the study.
By numbers: When asked to respond to a statement that was considered orthodox by the Republican Party: “Reducing the tax rate paid by the richest Americans helps increase the economic growth of all of us” – 46% said it was not OK.
- A third discussed whether reducing taxes on large corporations helps increase everyone’s economic growth.
- 60% said foreign trade helps the US economy, while 40% said it hurts.
- 40% said foreign trade creates more jobs for Americans, while 60% said it reduces the number of jobs for Americans.
- 55% said controlling the cost of Medicare for taxpayers is more important, but 45% said it is more important to make sure seniors receive the health care they need regardless of their cost.
- 63% said it is more important to keep Social Security benefits at current levels, even if it means raising payroll taxes, but 37% favored keeping a cap on payroll taxes, until and all if it means reducing benefits for future retirees.
But, but, but: Nearly nine out of ten supported the construction of a U.S.-Mexico border wall, supported American employers certifying workers ’citizenship, cared about increased anti-white discrimination, and went to say that the Christian faith is essential to American greatness, but attacked.
Between lines: There is a real division within the Trump coalition over the future of the Republican Party.
- 66% said he was more in favor of former President Trump than the Republican party.
- 37% said the game was going the wrong way.
- 40% said Republicans care more about helping make more money than helping them live a dignified life.
- 54% said they would definitely support Trump in 2024, if he ran again.
What they say: “The Trump coalition is fundamentally different” from pre-Trump Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, Olsen told Axios.
- “Once we get away from the economy, patriotism, culture and religious issues, it’s really a clear supermajority and that unites the coalition … There’s no real way a modern democratic coalition can jump into this conversation in these terms “.
- “But the economy definitely divides the Trump coalition … All the things that defined economic thinking before Trump are now a complete split.” Going back to conservative economic ideas could be “like opening a door for Democrats to go through.”
- The challenge for Republicans is “they must consolidate the Trump coalition outside of Trump’s personality.”
Methodology: This survey of 1,000 Trump 2020 voters was conducted from January 11 to 14, 2021, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%
- YouGov interviewed 1,069 matching Trump voters with a sample of 1,000 to produce the final data set based on Trump voter characteristics from the 2020 Cooperative Congress Election Study. Matching data were weighted by age, gender, race, and education by weighting the propensity score.