It took two general elections, three prime ministers and just over four and a half years, but as of today Britain finally has the Brexit it voted for in June 2016.
The big picture: Britain has abandoned the European single market and the customs union and is no longer governed by European law.
- Yes, but: Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom, while negotiating as if it were part of Europe. This means that anyone moving goods between Northern Ireland and Britain must first fill out a customs declaration.
- An analogy: Imagine that companies in Alaska can trade freely with Canada and Mexico, but that they need to complete the paperwork to import or export anything to the rest of the U.S.
- Gibraltar, in the same way, will join the Schengen area. This means that Europeans will be able to travel in and out freely, while visitors to the UK will be forced to show their passport at a border checkpoint.
The trade agreement with Europe puts zero tariffs on goods. However, most of the British economy is in the services sector, which is not covered at all in the agreement. (UK companies have only had a week to prepare for the new trade regime, which was agreed on Christmas Eve).
- Britain exports about $ 35 billion in financial services to the EU each year and another $ 134 billion in other services, including legal, accounting, advertising, architecture, insurance, technical support and more.
- As for the UK’s trade relations with the rest of the world, 62 trade agreements have been signed, although many of the big ones, including the United States, China and India, are still up to par.
By numbers: The UK Office for Budgetary Responsibility estimates that Brexit will leave the country 4% poorer than it would have been in the EU.
- This is just the economic cost. The cultural costs associated with the end of the free movement of labor between Britain and the mainland are less quantifiable, but certainly higher.
- Both Europe and the UK may also be less secure, now that British police no longer have access to the Schengen information system. Last year they consulted Europe’s largest security database more than 1.6 million times a day.
The future of the United Kingdom now it is also at risk.
- Scotland it wants to separate and become an independent European nation.
- Northern Ireland could vote to leave the UK and join Ireland, reuniting the island.
The other side: “For the first time since 1973 we will be an independent coastal state with full control of our waters,” UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, announcing the deal.
The summary: For the past 40 years, Britain has found peace and prosperity as one of the most important actors in a community of more than 400 million people. As of today it has become, once again, an island off the coast of Europe.