The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban and the chaos that ensues constitute a “complicated situation” for China, a Cornell professor told CNBC.
“On one level, what is happening in Afghanistan could be considered a victory for China because it suggests that the United States has many weaknesses in terms of its intelligence … the way it deploys its massive military arsenal. and its economic power, sometimes to the point of being productive, “Eswar Prasad, a professor of commercial policy at Cornell University in New York, told CNBC on Tuesday.
The U.S.’s “long and unproductive involvement” in Afghanistan has been a “black eye” for U.S. foreign policy, said Prasad, who was head of the Chinese division of the International Monetary Fund.
“No doubt this will make the US fall in the eyes of the rest of the world, although it is not clear that the outcome in Afghanistan by itself … will lead any other country to China’s economic and political embrace. “said in a separate email.
Afghanistan fell under Taliban control when the Islamist militant group seized the capital Kabul more than a week ago. The Taliban have advanced rapidly across the country since the United States began withdrawing its military forces to Afghanistan before the August 31 deadline.
I think Beijing is likely to rejoice in the short term, but who knows, in the long run it could have some problems.
Eswar Prasad
professor of commercial policy, Cornell University
Concern in Beijing over the resurgent Taliban
A Taliban takeover could also have its own problems for China, Prasad said.
In Beijing there is a legitimate concern about what a resurgence of the Taliban and other extremist groups could mean for China’s internal stability, as “it is hard to imagine that this will not cross the border in one way or another. “, he said.
There are two possible scenarios with extreme possibilities, said Victor Gao, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization.
One is that the Taliban accept reform and peace, and the other is that the Taliban are reverting to their old ways: to what it was 20 years ago, Gao told CNBC on Tuesday.
“This will pose a great threat to the people of Afghanistan, but also to neighboring countries and regions such as the Chinese region of Xinjiang, for example, and will endanger many people.”
Prasad added, “So I think it’s likely that Beijing will be happy in the short term, but who knows, in the long run it could have some problems.”
Chinese media have denied the withdrawal of the United States. The Chinese state media Global Times published an editorial on Monday accusing the Afghan government of defeating the withdrawal of US forces.
“Empty” left by the US withdrawal
The hasty withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan also raises some issues, Prellad of Cornell noted.
“There are questions about whether, even if the United States is committed in the short term to a particular country or region in particular, whether the commitment can be maintained or is credible in the long term, and also whether the commitment can end in a very messy fashion, as we are seeing right now, ”he said.
Meanwhile, there are questions about who will fill the gap left by the “weak” American commitment to the region, Prasad said.
“The question is whether there is an alternative power that can, again, fill the gap that could be created by perceptions of weak American commitments or the weak American capacity to meet those commitments.”
– CNBC’s Abigail Ng and Natasha Turak contributed to this report.