Raúl Castro will retire at the age of 89, leaving the island’s highest power in April during the Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), the first to be held after the death of his brother Fidel in 2016.
Next April, the surname Castro will leave the political life of Cuba. In the middle of the month, when the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) is held in Congress, Raúl Castro, Fidel Castro’s brother, will retire and the party will be in the hands of a new generation.
The Castro brothers have held the kingdoms firmly in Cuba since 1959, which is now opening up to a new era with other men in power.
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The new team has “pending the task of building its legitimacy, which can only emanate from its own political project, which brings economic prosperity with social justice for Cuba,” Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue analysis center in Washington.
It is expected that these men and women, led by the current president Miguel Díaz-Canel, 60, will arrive during the next congress of the PCC (only) -between 16 and 19 April- to the maximum direction of the party, center of power on the island.
Cuba will remain socialist, but for specialists constitutional legality will limit the preeminence of ideology and may allow for political openness.
political reforms
In April 2019 a new Constitution was passed defending the “irreversible” nature of socialism in the country. She is “a daughter of her time and reflects the diversity of society,” said then-Raúl Castro, who after handing over the presidency to Díaz-Canel in 2018, will now leave the PCC leadership.
Unlike its predecessor, approved unanimously in 1976, the new Magna Carta received the approval of 78.3% of popular suffrage, and 22% of rejection or abstention, a high level in the context Cuban.
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However, in recent months, artists, intellectuals and other sectors of civil society have begun to demand rights and freedoms in the country.
Faced with these claims, the new team is expected to push for political reform of the state “to effectively manage the tensions that are manifesting in society,” Shifter points out, considering that at least in theory the Constitution allows distract the power of the president.
On November 27, an unprecedented peaceful protest of 300 artists was recorded in front of the Ministry of Culture, demanding freedom of expression.
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While a few weeks ago a decree for animal welfare was passed, considered the first victory of unofficial civil society.
The rapid spread of the internet in the last three years on the island has allowed many Cubans to express discontent.
The PCC, meanwhile, announced it will face “political-ideological subversion” on social media.
For Shifter, this new ruling generation has the major challenge of responding with a political project different from that of the generation of historical leaders, which grants broad quotas of freedom to society.
The tradition of the revolution leaders had been to mobilize their hosts to have active ideological support, but that is changing.
“Today the mobilization is selective. Not so much with an ideological logic but a political one, of accommodation in government, demanding neutrality rather than militancy,” said Cuban academic Arturo López-Levy of Holy Names University. Oakland, California.
Pragmatic relationship with EE. UU.
Another key factor will be the relationship the new political team maintains with the United States, which for some experts largely determines what happens on the island.
The new president of the United States, Joe Biden, had advanced in his campaign that could eliminate the sanctions imposed by his predecessor, Donald Trump, and resume a policy of rapprochement on the island, having as a compass the demand of the respect for human rights. However, so far Cuba has not been a priority.
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“Because of the dynamics that exist between Cuba and the United States, the United States really directly and indirectly conditions much of what is happening. [en Cuba]”From the decision-making of even Cuban leaders,” said political analyst Harold Cárdenas.
The new Cuban political project should also build a pragmatic relationship with the United States, and one thing that could change is the strong military presence in the government, the CCP, and the economy.
Much of the 280 sanctions imposed on Cuba by the Trump administration targeted military-led companies. Under a new policy they could pass into civilian hands for not being the target of sanctions.
Although, whether civilian or military, the state owns these companies.
In the event that this does not happen and American hostility continues, internally “Cuba experienced a long renegotiation of civil-military relations,” Lopez-Levy notes.
Then “the military will have the perfect justification to continue playing its prominent role in the political and socio-economic,” he concluded.