Relations with Afghanistan are difficult, analysts say

China was one of the first countries to express its willingness to engage diplomatically with Taliban militants when they came to power in Afghanistan; analysts say it is a pragmatic move, but relations could be “complicated” given Beijing’s strategic interests.

Beijing has been preparing for the return of the Taliban to power for years, according to Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at Rand Corporation.

“Unofficially, they’ve been talking to the Taliban for many years, covering up their bets,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

But the relationship between China and the Islamist militant group is “complicated” because Beijing is targeting what it calls religious extremism among ethnic minority Muslims in Xinjiang, said Ian Johnson of the Foreign Affairs Council.

Xinjiang is home to minority Uighur Muslims. The United States, the United Kingdom and the United Nations have accused China of human rights abuses, including forced labor and large-scale arrests in Xinjiang. Beijing denies these claims.

“If they have an Islamist political party that is … leading a neighboring country, this could potentially be a problem for China,” said Johnson, who is a senior member of Stephen A. Schwarzman’s studies in China. CFR.

“At least optically, it seems strange that, on the one hand, Beijing … would be willing to work [the Taliban]. On the other hand, Xinjiang’s Islamist groups are a problem like this, ”he told CNBC.

China is concerned that Afghanistan will become a haven for an Uighur extremist group called the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, according to a note from the Eurasian Group. Beijing believes the group could launch attacks in response to “widespread Uyghur repression,” analysts wrote.

Chinese authorities may try to protect their country from terrorist attacks by building relations with the Taliban, according to Neil Thomas, an analyst in China and the Northeast Asia group Eurasia.

“Beijing hopes that offering economic aid and possibly diplomatic recognition to the Taliban will persuade them to protect China’s security interests in Afghanistan,” he told CNBC in an email.

China’s decision to relate to the Taliban is a “pragmatic step,” Thomas said.

It makes “perfect sense” for Beijing, according to Rodger Baker, senior vice president of strategic analysis at Stratfor.

“We’ve seen it all over the world: the Chinese are perfectly willing to deal with any side that is in a country, as long as that side agrees to uphold China’s interests,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday. This may include keeping the region stable so that China’s road and belt infrastructure projects are not derailed and preventing terrorism or other attacks, he added.

Hua, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, said China has maintained contact and communication with the Taliban “on the basis of fully respecting Afghanistan’s sovereignty and the will of all factions in the country.” The Taliban assured Beijing that “it would never allow any force to use Afghan territory to engage in acts detrimental to China,” he added.

“China will try to keep the Taliban at its word, but there are unanswered questions about the unity and level of extremism in the new regime,” Thomas said.

China “laid the groundwork” and made preparations to work with the Taliban, but it is difficult to predict whether Beijing will formally recognize them as Afghanistan’s government, CFR Johnson said, adding that Western countries may not. wanting no one to claim the Taliban.

“It may take a while,” he said. Beijing “might want to make sure the Taliban will be” a normal government “and not … have massacres and massacres or something like that before giving them formal diplomatic recognition.”

If the Taliban behaves “more or less normally,” China is likely to recognize it “at some point” in the face of Western countries, he added.

Grossman, of Rand Corporation, echoed that sentiment and noted that China may think it is time to begin the process of potential recognition of the Taliban as a “legitimate government entity.”

“But they have also said they want to make sure the Taliban are making a‘ clean break ’with the terrorist representatives,” he said.

The Taliban pledged peace last week at its first news conference since taking Kabul, according to a Reuters report.

For now, unlike many other governments that have moved to evacuate staff from the Afghan embassy, ​​the Chinese ambassador remains in Kabul. A spokesman for the Taliban political bureau said the group would not lead diplomatic missions in the country.

It is smart for China to take this approach, which indicates that Beijing is not afraid, that it is taking sides or fleeing the Taliban, Johnson said.

Thomas of Eurasia said this could also help in the medium term.

“It is possible that China will ask its diplomats to stay in Afghanistan to present a contrast to Western evacuation missions and try to build trust and diplomatic leverage with the new Taliban regime,” he said.