The COVID-19 variant identified in England last month could carry a higher risk of causing death, although data is limited, according to one of the government’s scientific advisory groups, the political editor of Twitter said on Twitter. the ITV, Robert Peston.
Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus variant that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, said Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
“In addition to spreading faster, there now also seems to be some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – could be associated with a higher degree of mortality. Johnson said.
“It is largely the impact of this new variant which means the NHS is under such intense pressure.”
Although the new variant is more contagious, top British science and health officials have said so far that there was no evidence that it was more lethal or caused more serious illness.
Still, Peston said the government’s advisory group for threats to new and emerging viruses (Nervtag) had now concluded that “it may be a little more lethal than the existing strain.”
He quoted a statement from Neil Ferguson, a professor at Imperial College and a member of the Nervtag, as saying, “It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant will increase the risk of death, but considerable uncertainty remains.”
No one was immediately available for comment from the UK Department of Health, which deals with Nervtag.
The statement cited by Peston established a 1.3-fold increase in the risk of death with the variant, but also highlighted that only a few types of tests could specify which variant of the virus a patient had contracted.
“The big caveat is that we only know with which strain people became infected during about 8% of deaths,” Peston said, citing Ferguson, who also set other limitations on the available data.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, He told the BBC that evidence of lethality “is not yet strong”.
He said: “I want to stress that there is a lot of uncertainty around these figures and that we need more work to get accurate handling of them, but it is clear that it is worrying that this has an increase in mortality and an increase in transmissibility. “
The new variant appears to be about 30% more deadly.
For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected with the old variant, 10 of them could be expected to die. But that increases to around 13 with the new variant.
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