Resolution of the struggle of the Kremlin Navalny Navalny, even from prison

Photographer: Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP / Getty Images

Russian officials were convinced that opposition leader Alexey Navalny would not return.

They had warned that he would be jailed on arrival and would continue to take threats from new investigations, amid allegations ranging from stealing donations from supporters to working for American intelligence. Even fellow Kremlin critics told the 44-year-old activist it was too dangerous to return from Berlin, where he had recovered from a nervous breakdown that he and Western capitals blamed on President Vladimir Putin.

But Navalny, convinced that he could only remain a political force from the country, ignored his advice.

His dramatic return has thrown the Kremlin on the defensive. Tension is not welcome in a year that was supposed to seal control in this fall’s election, when Russia recovered from the pandemic after Putin laid the groundwork to extend his government until 2036.

“Navalny’s plan is very simple: to become Putin’s No. 1 headache and, with his courage, inspire political activism,” said Fyodor Krasheninnikov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin critic. “If he had decided not to return, it would have been a victory for Putin.”

Sponsors say the strategy can work even if Navalny is jailed for years, which they expect. The Russian leader’s main opponent is betting that this year he will be able to bring enough fans to the streets to show that they will not be intimidated. At the same time, it has a West recently energized by the inauguration of US President Joe Biden to increase pressure on the Kremlin from outside.

It is a risky bet.

Long sentence

Now the Kremlin is determined to keep Navalny in prison for several years or more, breaking with his past practice of giving him prison sentences of no more than a couple of weeks, according to two people close to the leadership, who went speak on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that are not public. It could reach up to 3.5 years in a hearing scheduled for Feb. 2, with another case under construction that could add ten more.

These people said the hardest line comes from the Kremlin’s vision that Navalny works on behalf of Western governments, a charge he denies. At the same time, continued protests in Belarus despite the brutal efforts of Alexander Lukashenko, with the support of the Russian, to suppress them, have raised fears about public protests, they said. Authorities hope that Navalny’s highly personalized move will lose direction once he is in prison.

Read more: Putin, the poison and importance of Alexey Navalny: QuickTake

So far, this has not happened. A the new video he and his team released on YouTube on Tuesday, exposing a grand Black Sea palace that allegedly belonged to Putin, had more than 40 million views in the first two days, a record for his group. The Kremlin considers the film’s claims false.

“They caused a completely unnecessary crisis with serious national and international consequences,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a political consultant who worked in the presidential administration in the early 2000s. “The Kremlin is now playing on the Navalny turf.”

The activist and his allies hope that his case will catalyze the public discontent that has been boiling amid a 4% drop in real revenues and coronavirus closures, which has put Putin’s ratings at lows last year. They are heading to the September parliamentary elections as an opportunity to send a signal of the extent of popular unhappiness.

The Levada Center Last fall’s poll revealed that 20% of Russians said they approved of Navalny’s work, despite his uniformly negative coverage in the state media. Half said he disapproved of it.

Putin’s support

“There will be no quick steps, but the erosion of the regime will definitely accelerate,” Krasheninnikov said. “This stressful situation will force Putin and his circle to make mistakes.”

Of course, critics of the Kremlin have predicted for years that the collapse of Putin’s support will be disappointed. Polls show their support for him.

An early test for opponents comes on Saturday, when Navalny’s allies plan rallies in dozens of cities. Authorities already warned that they would not grant permits and arrested at least one organizer, moving at the same time to block websites promoting events.

Appeal of the call?

Putin’s popularity has fallen from its peak

Source: Center Levada

While the confrontation with Navalny carries risks of igniting popular anger over the continuation of Putin’s government, it also has the potential reward of breaking the Kremlin’s most persistent opposition movement. The latest major challenge, which led to Putin’s imprisonment of billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003 over Western protests, indicated his rejection of any challenge to his power.

“In Russia it is now more effective to fight the regime from prison than from exile,” said Khodorkovsky, who was forced to leave Russia in 2013 after his prison sentence. His case is precautionary: he also returned from abroad knowing he would be imprisoned, but he underestimated the Kremlin’s resolution. “I thought I would get 3-4 years at most, but it turned out to be ten.”

Repression of dissent