Moscow – In the rapid capture of the Taliban in Afghanistan after the chaotic withdrawal of American forces this week, Russia sees an opportunity to intensify its role as a regional power in its own garden. But it also faces a number of risks, prompting the country to pursue a two-pronged approach: diplomacy with the Taliban and displays of strength along its border.
It looks like the Kremlin willing to relate to the Taliban in order to secure their interests. Since the group took over Kabul, Moscow representatives have cautiously sought talks to secure their diplomatic enclosures in the area. Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov even publicly praised the Taliban on Russian state television.
“We are now protected by the Taliban, their great unit. They made a good impression on us, suitable, well-armed guys, they were stationed along the outer perimeter of the embassy so that no one could penetrate us, not terrorists, not a single one. crazy, ”Zhirnov said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, hinted that Russia could recognize the Taliban as a governing force based on its next moves, which could mean a major victory for the militants. Russian diplomats have also praised the Taliban for the “puppet government” of Ashraf Ghani, the president who fled Afghanistan and resurfaced in the United Arab Emirates. Russia only partially evacuated its embassy.
“I judge by the first day of his control over Kabul. My impressions are good. The situation in Kabul is now better than in Ashraf Ghani. That is, under Taliban terrorists it is better than under Ghani,” Zhirnov said. .
Russia placed the Taliban on its terrorist list in 2003, but welcomed Taliban representatives for talks since 2018, ignoring the Ghani administration. In July, the Taliban even held a press conference in Moscow just after U.S. President Joe Biden’s intervention on the “orderly withdrawal” of American troops.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned the fight against terrorism into the cornerstone of his presidency, justifying the country’s participation in Syria and supporting authoritarian leader Bashar al-Assad as a way to maintain stability.
But in Afghanistan, the goals of realpolitik are at stake, as Russia is concerned that ideas of the movement’s Islamic fundamentalism may be transmitted to the former Soviet-majority Muslim states allied with Moscow.
While exploring diplomatic ways to interact with the Taliban, Moscow also made sure to project the force by conducting joint military exercises in Tajikistan and China near the Afghan border, with the latter aimed at “demonstrating determination and capability. to fight terrorism ”.
“The goal is not to allow the Taliban to expand outside Afghanistan and make the Taliban government as small as possible compared to its previous version,” Alexander Baunov, a senior member of Carnegie Moscow, told CBS News Center. “Russia is not interested in having a new ISIS on the border.”
The Russian military also announced this week that Russian troops will participate in a month-long exercise with Tajikistan. According to a collective security treaty with regional states, Moscow has an obligation to deploy forces in the event that one of these states is attacked.
Another potential headache for Moscow is the wave of refugees fleeing Afghanistan. Russia rarely offers asylum, but it can be met with a wave of Afghans currently trying to reach neighboring Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
“The United States withdrew the burden of unnecessary spending as soon as it became clear that its strategic goal of controlled chaos was being realized without its presence. We were left with all obligations and all risks (guess where the flow of refugees, as well as at whose expense will the borders and armies of the Central Asian states be strengthened? ..), and they entered a precious machine and fled, “columnist Daria Mitina wrote in the newspaper Vedomosti, friend of Moscow.
Moscow has its own painful story of a failed military mission in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union had invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to defend a communist government that was fighting guerrillas and hoped to withdraw within a year.
They met with brutal resistance and the war continued for nine years, killing up to 2 million Afghans and about 15,000 Soviet troops. Later, anti-Soviet mujahideen fighters helped establish the Taliban in the 1990s.
History repeated itself when U.S. Allied forces fled the Friendship Bridge, the same one Soviet troops used more than 30 years ago to march, prompting some gurgles in the Kremlin.
In Moscow, the failed withdrawal of U.S. forces is seen as a major setback for U.S. foreign policy, marking points for Putin’s idea of a “multipolar world,” which rejects U.S. efforts to to promote democracy throughout the world.
“In Afghanistan, the myth of the omnipotence of US military power has been destroyed. Abandoned bases and the inability to ensure the security and operation of a mere airport are powerful symbols. [of that]”Konstantin Kosachev, a Russian senator at the head of the Committee on International Affairs, wrote on Facebook.” From now on, it is not the bombs that are dropped from American planes, but living people. And they leave their own village without the slightest shame. Some of our neighbors are worried for a reason. “