Russia is building military influence in Africa, challenging the United States and France

Russia challenges the status quo in Africa, using insecurity and diplomatic disputes with Western powers as a springboard to expand its presence on the continent.

From Libya to Nigeria, Ethiopia to Mali, Moscow has in recent years been building key strategic military alliances and an increasingly favorable public profile across Africa.

The focus of this effort is to offer alternatives to countries that have been dissatisfied with Western diplomatic associations.

The second Russia-Africa summit is scheduled for 2022. At the inaugural summit in Sochi in 2019, President Vladimir Putin promised that Russia “will not participate in a new” distribution “of the continent’s wealth; rather, we are prepared for commit to competition for cooperation with Africa “.

Through the UN, Russia has also provided aid in the form of food and medical care, along with its growing trade, economic and military support across the continent.

Russia’s bilateral push

In the last two months alone, Russia has signed military cooperation agreements with Nigeria and Ethiopia, Africa’s two most populous nations.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that Africa accounted for 18% of Russian arms exports between 2016 and 2020.

Russian mercenaries have also provided direct assistance to the governments of Libya and the Central African Republic, according to the UN. However, the Kremlin has denied links to the Wagner group, a paramilitary organization that the UN says helps aid human rights abuses in the region.

“A group of Russian instructors was sent to the CAR at the request of its leaders and with the knowledge of the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on the CAR established by Resolution 2127,” a ministry statement said in July. of Russian Foreign Affairs. “Indicatively, none of them have been involved in combat operations.”

Reuters reported in July that U.S. lawmakers had stalled a planned $ 1 billion arms sale to Nigeria over allegations of human rights abuses by the government.

Less than a month later, Russia signed an agreement with the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to supply military equipment, training and technology to Nigerian forces.

Although historically a key U.S. diplomatic and trading partner, the Buhari government was at odds with Washington amid the #EndSARS protests in 2020, and again after a recent drop on Twitter.

Meanwhile, Islamist militant groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State province of West Africa have continued to wreak havoc in the northeast of the country.

This confluence of factors that paved the way for the creation of Russian influence was also played out in Ethiopia. Russia has backed the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed after Western governments rejected the military response of its forces to an insurgency north of Tigray.

Ethiopia considered that the US, in particular, was aligned with Egypt in the ongoing dispute over the great takeover of the Ethiopian Renaissance. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken further evoked Addis Ababa’s anger in March by accusing Tigray’s forces of “ethnic cleansing.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with his Ethiopian counterpart Demeke Mekonnen in June. Moscow proceeded to deploy election observers in Ethiopia, while the EU withdrew its observers, citing “ongoing violence across the country, human rights violations and political tensions, harassment of media workers. communication and detained members of the opposition “.

Russia has provided strategic weapons as a potential defense against any Egyptian strike against the GERD and to help government forces in Tigray.

“The gains of the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), which has captured parts of the Afar and Amhara regions in recent weeks, make the supply of weapons needed much more important for Addis Ababa, and it is Moscow is likely to force that request, possibly on a purchase basis now to pay later, “said Louw Nel, a senior political analyst at NKC African Economics.

In what Nel marked as a “sign of things to come,” Ethiopia and Russia signed a military cooperation agreement in July, focusing specifically on knowledge and technology transfers. However, Nel noted that Ethiopia “will be wary of allowing the deployment of Russian personnel there outside of training capacity.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

US “crawling buildup”

The United States has pledged to revive its economic and trade commitments in Africa, but a planned disadvantage of troops is giving way to extensive spending on operational bases and long-term plans to maintain a strategic presence, according to a recent report by risk intelligence firm Pangea -Risk.

In 2018, then-US national security adviser John Bolton pointed to Russia’s “expansionist influence across Africa” and Washington has sought to maintain a foothold on the continent.

The Biden administration will maintain the U.S. Army’s 27 operational advantages on the continent, while the country’s African Command (Africom) prioritizes anti-terrorism targets in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel regions.

The United States also establishes a presence in other strategically important regions, such as the Red Sea and the Gulf of Guinea. It is reported that about $ 330 million will be spent in 2025 on projects to build US military bases and related infrastructure, while Africom is developing a 20-year strategic plan.

This will focus on the fight against terrorism, special forces operations and humanitarian support, along with safeguarding U.S. trade interests in the face of the growing Chinese and Russian presence.

The report notes that since July 2020, Cape Verde authorities have reached an agreement on the state of forces with the U.S. military to allow U.S. troops to operate from its archipelago.

“This agreement makes sense given global geopolitical competition in the West African region and the need to counter the growing risk of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, which poses an existential threat to U.S. trade interests,” said CEO Pangea-Risk. Said Robert Besseling.

“However, the one-year SOFA with Cape Verde raises questions about the broader U.S. diplomatic and judicial commitments in the country and whether this sets a pattern for U.S.-Africa relations in the future.” .

The director of the Africa International Crisis Group program, Comfort Ero, has said that the “growing accumulation” of the US military on the continent is accompanied by mixed messaging, accusing both US and African governments of lacking transparency.

The U.S. is likely to phase out its direct military presence at insecurity points, but they continue to seek SOFA agreements with countries of strategic importance, Pangea-Risk said, adding that Washington will be reluctant to withdraw completely due to of the Chinese and Russian presence.

France fights in the Sahel

France maintains the presence and the largest number of troops of any former colonial power in Africa, especially in the form of 5,100 troops in the Sahel, where the border area between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger meets, which has become a hot spot for violence.

“Paris is inconsistent in its treatment of friendly regimes, leading to an unconstitutional transfer of power to Chad, but it is taking a harder line after a coup in Mali,” NKC’s Nel said.

French President Emmanuel Macron supported a military-led transition by Chadian President Idriss Deby, who was killed in a battle with rebel forces in April over his son. This violated the country’s constitution and provoked anti-French protests and the vandalism of a Total gas station.

However, when Colonel Assimi Goita established military rule in Mali, Macron denounced the coup and suspended a joint military operation with the Malian army. Subsequent protests were also hostile towards France, while Russian flags and posters were visible.

“Given the clear negative trend of political stability in Mali, there are reasons to consider the danger that it could end up similar to the CAR, where the weak government of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is maintained essentially by the Russian muscle: Yevgeny’s mercenaries Prigozhin’s Wagner group, “Nel said.