Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, while speaking during the annual speech on the state of the nation in Moscow, Russia, on Wednesday, January 15, 2020.
Bloomberg
Russian President Vladimir Putin will address the nation on Wednesday in his annual speech on “The State of the Nation,” a speech that will take place when the country is in the news for all the wrong reasons.
In the last week, there have been more reports that Russian troops are massing on the border with Ukraine, potentially preparing for military action.
And Putin critic Alexei Navalny, on hunger strike in a Russian prison, has fallen dangerously ill and has been taken to a prison hospital. The news sparked U.S. warnings that there would be “consequences” if Russia allows Navalny to die in prison.
In addition, Russia has been accused of orchestrating an attack on a Czech weapons depot in 2014, and the Czech Republic expelled 18 Russian diplomats as a result this week. Russia denies that two of its military intelligence agents (the same men who are believed to have carried out a nerve agent attack on a former spy in Britain in 2018) carried out the Czech attack, but the news, however, has added to the negative flow of news around the country.
Last week, the United States imposed more sanctions on Russia for 2020 electoral interference, a cyberattack on U.S. business and government networks, its annexation and occupation of Crimea by Ukraine, and human rights abuses.
It is uncertain whether Putin will address these recent events in his annual speech on Wednesday. Although, as Daragh McDowell, head of Europe and Russia’s chief analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, noted on Tuesday, the speech has often been “the basic piece for big policy announcements.”
The address usually deals with a wide range of topics, from economics and defense to education and family life. The coronavirus pandemic will also be on the agenda, and the virus has hit the country hard over the past year.
Russia’s plans for foreign policy and geopolitical relations must be closely monitored by experts, especially when it comes to its neighbor Ukraine.
Ukraine
Russia’s close observers are particularly perplexed by reports that the country has been massing troops on the border with Ukraine, and the EU foreign minister estimates on Tuesday the size of the deployment of 100,000 troops.
“Just last week military analysts were downsizing the size of the Russian deployment, but now it looks quite sizeable,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging market strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, said in a note on Tuesday.
“(You have to) wonder why Putin feels the need to put such a big force ‘on the theater’, as it goes far beyond the saber shake. The deployment is bigger than in 2014 when Russia annexed “Crimea and invaded Donbas. Don’t forget. Why bother if something serious is really planned?” He asked.
Ash questioned what Putin’s strategic goals could be in Ukraine, a country with which Russia has maintained very strained relations since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“Is this to ensure the supply of water to the Crimea, (a) land bridge to the Crimea, or to give the Ukrainian forces a beating such that the Kiev government demands a peace that gives Russia a lasting strategic rule over Ukraine?” Ash asked.
Navalny
Activist Navalny, 44, was taken to a prison hospital this weekend because her health deteriorated during a hunger strike she organized in protest of her treatment in prison. He has said he has been denied urgent medical treatment, a claim denied by Russian authorities.
Navalny is in prison after a Russian court sentenced him in February to more than two years in prison for violations of parole, charges he said had political motivation.
Over the weekend, his doctor warned that Navalny was in danger of a heart attack or kidney failure. Doctors had not been able to visit Navalny in prison, but said medical tests provided by Navalny’s family showed he was dangerously ill and “could die at any time.”
The US administration has warned the Russian government not to let Navalny die in custody, adding that there will be “consequences”.
Read more: The United States was upset by the deteriorating health of the Kremlin critic imprisoned in Navalny
Navalny’s team called for mass protests on Wednesday, a move that could spark clashes between protesters and police.
McDowell of Verisk Maplecroft noted that tensions between Russia and the West have been steadily rising since the beginning of the year, driven by both the Biden administration’s more confrontational policy and Navalny’s return.
“Navalny’s imprisonment, and the rapidly deteriorating health, have galvanized Russia’s internal opposition and become an international public relations headache for the Kremlin, with European governments pressured to take a further line. hard to Moscow, ”he said.