Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf countries are expected to sign an agreement on Tuesday to end a diplomatic crisis in the Gulf after 3½ years.
The general picture: A Saudi-led coalition broke ties with Qatar in 2017 and closed its air and sea space routes to Qatar planes and ships, citing Qatar’s alleged support for terrorist groups and relations with Iran. In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been pressured by the Trump administration to end the dispute.
- The United States maintains close relations with both Qatar and its rivals, but past attempts by the Trump administration to reconcile the parties have failed.
- Both Gulf countries see the signing of the agreement as a gesture to the Trump administration and part of their effort to “clear the table” to prepare for the Biden administration.
- Jared Kushner mediated between the parties and traveled to Saudi Arabia to participate in the signing during this week’s Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.
The last: Prior to the signing of the agreement, Kuwait’s foreign minister announced that Saudi Arabia and Qatar would open their land, air and sea borders from Monday night.
Driving the news: Kushner traveled to the GCC summit in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, with White House envoy Avi Berkowitz and adviser Brian Hook, who helped negotiate the deal.
- The summit will be the first time the Emir of Qatar Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani will visit Saudi Arabia since the crisis erupted in 2017. It will also be attended by leaders of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman in Kuwait.
- Leaders will sign an agreement that includes three confidence-building measures: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will lift the maritime and air blockade of Qatar; Qatar will withdraw all lawsuits against its three Gulf neighbors; and all parties will stop their media campaigns with each other.
Behind the scenes: The agreement was reached in principle during Kushner’s last visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar several weeks ago, where he met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Tamim. Kushner maintains close relations with the two leaders.
- U.S. officials say after meeting the Saudi Crown Prince, Kushner traveled to Doha, the capital of Qatar, with Hook, while leaving his aides Berkowitz and Adam Boehler in Saudi Arabia nearby. The two media conversations between the Saudis and the Qataris were over the phone in real time until a draft agreement was reached.
- In recent weeks, final discussions have been held with the Saudis and Qataris to make sure both parties are committed to the agreements that were reached, officials told me.
- The White House also put pressure on the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, all three with reservations about the deal, as they view Qatar in a negative sense and do not believe Qataris are sincere.
- The deal was nearly broken on Sunday when poor communication at the last minute created new tensions between the Saudis and Qataris, informed sources on the matter told me.
- Kushner and his team were scheduled to leave Sunday afternoon, but postponed the trip. A source told me that Kushner and his team were forced to negotiate with the Saudis and Qataris until Sunday night until a solution was found. They left Washington en route to Saudi Arabia on Monday morning.
What they say: A senior diplomat from one of the Gulf countries told me that the agreement is a step in the right direction and includes some positive developments, but it does not mark the end of the Gulf fracture.
- “Some of the problems were resolved, but the root causes of the fracture (bad personal relations between leaders and the great political differences over Iran, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood) are still there,” the diplomat told me.
The summary: The deal, which will be signed Tuesday, would be a last-minute success for Kushner and the Trump administration before President-elect Joe Biden takes office on Jan. 20.