Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, welcomes Qatari Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, on 5 January.
Photographer: Anadolu / Getty Images Agency
Photographer: Anadolu / Getty Images Agency
One day when Saudi Arabia shook the oil market with a production cut he called a “gesture of goodwill,” the kingdom’s de facto ruler took center stage in a concert hall with mirrors, ready to settle a different crisis.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had presided over the split with Qatar for more than three years. But now it was only two weeks before a new US leader took office and President-elect Joe Biden had promised to treat Saudi Arabia as a “pariah”. Combined with threats from Iran and a weakened economy, the prince’s calculation had been changing: reconciliation seemed better than conflict.
The Arab Gulf states agree to restore Qatar’s ties in an agreement with the United States
So on Tuesday, as television cameras rolled northwest of the Saudi city of Al Ula, Prince Mohammed hugged the ruler of Qatar and ended the division, becoming a peacemaker. Hours later, Saudi Arabia announced it would reduce oil production by a million barrels a day to support fellow producer prices, a directive the energy minister said came directly from the Crown Prince and which went trigger the actions of American energy companies.
With these moves, Prince Muhammad stressed his public presence in a conciliatory tone, at least for now. Since the 35-year-old prince came to power in 2015, the world’s largest crude exporter had entered a series of low-risk companies: a war in Yemen, which partially severed ties with Canada. which was waging a fierce oil price war with Russia. , and flirting with a trade war with Turkey.
New approach
A Gulf-based diplomat, who asked not to be appointed during the Saudi domestic policy discussion, described Prince Muhammad as an attempt to pull two levers of influence at once. With one, he gets the profits he can make from the administration of Donald Trump, a friend of the Saudis. This has been done taking advantage of the desire of Special Adviser Jared Kushner, who attended the summit, to project himself as a peacemaker as well. With another lever, he positions himself as a leader that Biden cannot afford to alienate or ignore, especially in seeming constructive.
“It’s an effort to take on a leadership role, to try to gain some diplomatic advantage with the incoming Biden administration, and perhaps he realized that the last four years have allowed too much adventurism in foreign policy,” Karen Young said. , a scholar resident at American Enterprise Institute of Washington, DC
Trump was close to Saudi Arabia, made his first trip abroad as president there, took a hard line against his enemy Iran, and protected Prince Mohammed from the repercussions of the assassination. of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, conducted by Saudi agents in Istanbul in 2018
Costly conflicts
However, not only Biden is leading the new tone: the terrain that Prince Muhammad is treading has also changed. His plan to diversify the economy and waste oil is facing major setbacks and the kingdom’s reputation has plummeted after a series of scandals. The coronavirus pandemic increased the urgency of challenges at home.
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For much of last year, Prince Mohammed took a step back from the public sphere and fell on the Red Sea coast to Neom, one of his futuristic megaprojects. It was the Minister of Finance, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, and King Salman, the father of Prince Mohammed, who went to the country warning the citizens of difficult times.
At Tuesday’s summit, King Salman was absent and Prince Mohammed was the star. The setting reflected the prince’s ambitions, highlighting his plan to turn Al Ula into a world tourist destination. After the meetings, he toured the Qatari Sheikh Emirate Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad. They were riding in a white Lexus with Prince Muhammad at the wheel.
The image would have been unthinkable a few years ago, when the prince’s closest advisers regularly belittled Qatar. Saudi Arabia and its allies have accused the rich Gulf state of interfering in its internal affairs, supporting extremism and using its influential media channels as weapons of propaganda against neighbors, charges Doha denies.
Donald Trump, left, with Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud on the sidelines of the second day of the G20 Summit at the INTEX Osaka Exhibition Center in Osaka, Japan, in 2019.
Source: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Global Clout
Regional dynamics were key to driving bond repair, including Saudi Arabia’s desire to focus on Iran, said Hesham Alghannam, a political scientist and senior researcher at the Golf Research Center. Biden has said he will look to rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran that Trump abandoned, a disclosure viewed with fear by Saudi Arabia that also provided an added incentive to tighten ties with Arab neighbors. .
“Saudi wants to be the arbiter of the disagreement between the Gulf states, rather than being part of those conflicts,” Alghannam said.
From the Archives: a QuickTake on the Origins of the Saudi-Qatar Rift
The reduction in production was another demonstration of the kingdom’s regional and global influence. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, an older brother of the Crown Prince, said he was showing Saudi Arabiaa leader the world of oil and help other people suffering from lower oil prices, including Iraq.
But even this move revealed a shift in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy under the rule of King Salman and Prince Muhammad. After decades of pride in putting oil above politics, the royal palace has become more interventionist and its energy machinations more politicized.
To this end, Prince Abdulaziz described the cut in production as a “political, sovereign” step rather than a “technical” step. It will also be expensive. At current prices, it will cost $ 3 billion a month in oil revenue losses, according to Bloomberg News estimates, although the actual figure could end smaller.
But its overall impact was immediate. Crude oil prices jumped to a ten-month high above $ 50 a barrel. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is allowing Russia to increase production, the first and less than a year after its price war. It is one more sign that now the kingdom is not looking for confrontation.
– With the assistance of Vivian Nereim, Farah Elbahrawy and Abeer Abu Omar