The anecdotes tell us what the data can’t do: It looks like vaccinated people are getting the coronavirus at a surprisingly high rate. But exactly how often it is not clear, nor is it certain of the likelihood that they will spread the virus to other people. And now there is a growing concern that vaccinated people will be more vulnerable to serious illnesses than previously thought.
There is a shortage of scientific studies with concrete answers, which leave public policy makers and corporate executives to formulate plans based on fragmented information. While some renew the mandates of the masks or delay the reopening of the office, others cite the lack of clarity to justify staying on course. Everything can seem like a mess.
“We need to be humble about what we know and what we don’t know,” said Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and head of the nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives. “There are some things we can definitely say. One is that it is a difficult issue to address. ”
In the absence of clear public health messages, vaccinated people get confused about how to protect themselves. The degree of vulnerability they have is a key variable not only for public health officials trying to find out, for example, when reinforcement traits might be needed, but also to inform decisions about whether to recover reopenings in the midst of a new one. wave of the virus. On a smaller scale, the unknowns have left music lovers uncertain whether it’s okay to see a concert and have caused a new round of trouble among parents wondering what school will be like.
Instead of answers, what has emerged is a series of case studies that provide slightly different images of advanced infections. Variables that include when the surveys were conducted, whether there was the delta variant, what part of the population was vaccinated, and even how long it was at that time make it difficult to compare results and patterns. It is difficult to know which data may carry more weight.
“Clearly we now have more advances,” said Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco. “We all know someone who has had one. But we don’t have big clinical data. ”
One of the best-known outbreaks among vaccinated people occurred in the small beach town of Provincetown, Massachusetts, as thousands of vaccinated and unvaccinated gathered on the dance floors and at home parties over the weekend. of the fourth of July to celebrate the feast, and what seemed like a turning point in the pandemic. About three-quarters of the 469 infections were from vaccinated people.
The authors of a CDC case study said this could mean they were as likely to transmit Covid-19 as those who were not vaccinated. However, they warned, as more people are vaccinated, it is natural that they also account for a higher proportion of Covid-19 infections and this study was not enough to draw conclusions. The incident prompted the CDC to reverse a recommendation it had issued a few weeks earlier and once again urge vaccinated people to disguise themselves in certain settings.
However, the particular details of this group of cases may have made this outbreak especially bad, according to Gandhi.
“The rate of mild symptomatic outbreaks in this population was higher due to a lot of indoor activity (including intimacy), rain that weekend, little time out of town and the mix of people with a different vaccination status. “he said in an email.
Meanwhile, a much larger recent CDC case study of infections in New York State found that the number of advanced infections has been steadily increasing since May, accounting for nearly 4% of cases in New York State. mid-July. These researchers warned that factors such as reduced public health restrictions and increased highly contagious delta variant could affect the results.
Another CDC case study, in Colorado, found that the rate of advanced infection in one county, Mesa, was significantly higher than the rest of the state, at 7% versus about 5%. The report suggested that perhaps it was because the delta variant circulated more widely there, but it also noted the age of patients at Mesa and the lower vaccination rate may have played an important role.
Research in Israel has strongly suggested that immunity to the virus decreases in the months following inoculation and, more recently, that advanced cases may end up leading to an increase in hospitalizations.
Case studies and data from some U.S. states have similarly shown an increase in advanced cases over time. But with the delta variant also on the rise, it is difficult to know whether the guilt of immunity decreases in the face of any type of coronavirus infection or whether vaccinations are particularly ineffective against the delta variant. They could be both, of course. Behavior change among vaccinated people could also be a factor, as they return to social gatherings and travel and eat indoors.
All this, some facts are well established at this time. Vaccinated people infected with the virus are much less likely to need to go to the hospital, much less likely to need intubation, and much less likely to die from the disease. There is no doubt that vaccines offer important protection. But much of the nation (nearly 30 percent of American adults) has not been vaccinated, which has conspired with the highly contagious delta variant to push the country into a new wave of outbreaks.
“The big picture here is that vaccines work and the reason for the rise in the United States is that we have too little vaccine uptake,” Frieden said.
To some extent, advanced cases of any virus are expected. In clinical trials, no Covid vaccine was 100% effective, even the best vaccines are never. The more the virus circulates, the greater the risk of advanced cases. It is also common for some aspects of viral immunity to decline naturally over time.
For now, there are simply more questions than answers. Are advanced infections occurring due to the delta variant, decreased immunity, or return to normal life? Are vaccinated people more vulnerable to serious illnesses than previously thought? How common are innovative infections? It’s an assumption of either.
“Generally, we have to make public health decisions based on imperfect data,” Frieden said. “But there are a lot of things we don’t know.”
There is a shortage of scientific studies with concrete answers, which leave public policy makers and corporate executives to formulate plans based on fragmented information. While some renew the mandates of the masks or delay the reopening of the office, others cite the lack of clarity to justify staying on course. Everything can seem like a mess.
“We need to be humble about what we know and what we don’t know,” said Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and head of the nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives. “There are some things we can definitely say. One is that it is a difficult issue to address. ”
In the absence of clear public health messages, vaccinated people get confused about how to protect themselves. The degree of vulnerability they have is a key variable not only for public health officials trying to find out, for example, when reinforcement traits might be needed, but also to inform decisions about whether to recover reopenings in the midst of a new one. wave of the virus. On a smaller scale, the unknowns have left music lovers uncertain whether it’s okay to see a concert and have caused a new round of trouble among parents wondering what school will be like.
Instead of answers, what has emerged is a series of case studies that provide slightly different images of advanced infections. Variables that include when the surveys were conducted, whether there was the delta variant, what part of the population was vaccinated, and even how long it was at that time make it difficult to compare results and patterns. It is difficult to know which data may carry more weight.
“Clearly we now have more advances,” said Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco. “We all know someone who has had one. But we don’t have big clinical data. ”
One of the best-known outbreaks among vaccinated people occurred in the small beach town of Provincetown, Massachusetts, as thousands of vaccinated and unvaccinated gathered on the dance floors and at home parties over the weekend. of the fourth of July to celebrate the feast, and what seemed like a turning point in the pandemic. About three-quarters of the 469 infections were from vaccinated people.
The authors of a CDC case study said this could mean they were as likely to transmit Covid-19 as those who were not vaccinated. However, they warned, as more people are vaccinated, it is natural that they also account for a higher proportion of Covid-19 infections and this study was not enough to draw conclusions. The incident prompted the CDC to reverse a recommendation it had issued a few weeks earlier and once again urge vaccinated people to disguise themselves in certain settings.
However, the particular details of this group of cases may have made this outbreak especially bad, according to Gandhi.
“The rate of mild symptomatic outbreaks in this population was higher due to a lot of indoor activity (including intimacy), rain that weekend, little time out of town and the mix of people with a different vaccination status. “he said in an email.
Meanwhile, a much larger recent CDC case study of infections in New York State found that the number of advanced infections has been steadily increasing since May, accounting for nearly 4% of cases in New York State. mid-July. These researchers warned that factors such as reduced public health restrictions and increased highly contagious delta variant could affect the results.
Another CDC case study, in Colorado, found that the rate of advanced infection in one county, Mesa, was significantly higher than the rest of the state, at 7% versus about 5%. The report suggested that perhaps it was because the delta variant circulated more widely there, but it also noted the age of patients at Mesa and the lower vaccination rate may have played an important role.
Research in Israel has strongly suggested that immunity to the virus decreases in the months following inoculation and, more recently, that advanced cases may end up leading to an increase in hospitalizations.
Case studies and data from some U.S. states have similarly shown an increase in advanced cases over time. But with the delta variant also on the rise, it is difficult to know whether the guilt of immunity decreases in the face of any type of coronavirus infection or whether vaccinations are particularly ineffective against the delta variant. They could be both, of course. Behavior change among vaccinated people could also be a factor, as they return to social gatherings and travel and eat indoors.
All this, some facts are well established at this time. Vaccinated people infected with the virus are much less likely to need to go to the hospital, much less likely to need intubation, and much less likely to die from the disease. There is no doubt that vaccines offer important protection. But much of the nation (nearly 30 percent of American adults) has not been vaccinated, which has conspired with the highly contagious delta variant to push the country into a new wave of outbreaks.
“The big picture here is that vaccines work and the reason for the rise in the United States is that we have too little vaccine uptake,” Frieden said.
To some extent, advanced cases of any virus are expected. In clinical trials, no Covid vaccine was 100% effective, even the best vaccines are never. The more the virus circulates, the greater the risk of advanced cases. It is also common for some aspects of viral immunity to decline naturally over time.
For now, there are simply more questions than answers. Are advanced infections occurring due to the delta variant, decreased immunity, or return to normal life? Are vaccinated people more vulnerable to serious illnesses than previously thought? How common are innovative infections? It’s an assumption of either.
“Generally, we have to make public health decisions based on imperfect data,” Frieden said. “But there are a lot of things we don’t know.”