The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, caused concern announcement Friday on B 1.1.7, the coronavirus variant first found in the UK last fall that spread to the country and elsewhere. According to data recently analyzed by British scientists, B 1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than previous strains, but can also cause death. While these conclusions are still preliminary, it seems worth taking them seriously.
The announcement was based on data assessed by the UK Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats or NERVTAG, an independent group of scientists that has helped shape the country’s pandemic response. Last December, his student work B 1.1.7 solidified the consensus that the variant was more transmissible than previously circulating strains. Initially, their analyzes found no evidence that B 1.1.7 caused more serious illness or death in the population than before. But this is no longer the case.
According to his new document released On Friday, there are now several independent analyzes of case data collected in recent weeks pointing to the same trend: an increase in people dying from B 1.1.7 compared to people infected with other strains of the virus. Although the exact figures differ between groups, they suggest that B 1.1.7 is 30% more likely to cause death than previous strains. Note that, while a 30% increase seems huge, the overall mortality rate would still hold up somewhere 1%.
“This is, of course, very worrying, given the speed with which this variant has overtaken circulating strains in different regions and our inability to control general transmission to many parts of the world,” he said. Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist at the University of Manitoba in Canada who did not participate in the new research, told Gizmodo in an email.
Like the authors of the new article emphasizes, there are limitations on their findings. The data used by British scientists to study the coronavirus only cover a small portion of the total number of cases and deaths in the country on a given day. Some data sources, such as outpatient outcomes, also take longer to collect than others. This may explain why hospitalization data do not appear to specifically demonstrate that B.1.1.7 is more lethal; the data may not be up to date enough to find this pattern. It is also possible that B.1.1.7 will introduce more people to the hospital but does not necessarily change the chances of a hospitalized patient’s survival.
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One possible factor that could indirectly explain why B.1.1.7 seems more deadly—But hospitals are overwhelmed by more cases caused by a more transmissible variant — it doesn’t seem to play an important role. An analysis, conducted by The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, explained the “hospital pressure covariates” as the number of hospital beds available for patients. fan but they found no substantial change in their conclusions. The increase in mortality rates was consistent across different age groups, also, further suggesting a higher real risk of mortality by B.1.1.7 only.
Snow there are eternal countries concerned about the emergence of B.1.1.7 and others, similar variants. If B.1.1.7 is seized outside the United Kingdom, as some experts have warned, would certainly threaten to undo the recently declivity in cases and hospitalizations seen recently in some countries.
“My immediate thoughts, of couse, suffered the toll of this disease on oursresidents in Canada and what this variant could mean for an already precarious situation, “Kindrachuk said. Canada, like the US, is recent experiencing a decreased cases and hospitalizations. But shoots of variants similar to B 1.1.7 have already been is located in local nursing homes.
More work needs to be done to confirm these findings. But regardless of the findings, it remains absolutely essential to do everything possible to reduce the spread of the pandemic so quickly. as much as possible, including wearing masks, avoiding the possibility of socializing indoors when possible,and be vaccinated when the requirements are met.