Researchers have warned that a “catastrophic” eruption of the supervolcano could be much more likely than previously estimated.
A new study has warned that the probability of the super volcano under Lake Toba in Sumatra is much more likely to erupt than previously thought. Researchers in the study say previous estimates of an eruption have been based on the presence of liquid magma, but new research states that “eruptions can occur even if no liquid magma is found“.
According to Martin Danisik, an associate professor at Curtin University in Australia and lead author of the paper published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, he said: “The findings challenged existing knowledge and the study of eruptions, which usually involves searching for liquid magma under a volcano to assess future danger. We must now consider that eruptions can occur even if no liquid magma is found under a volcano; it is necessary to re-evaluate the concept of what is “eruptable”.“
This is just one of 20 super volcanoes in the world and the last time it erupted was about 74,000 years ago, releasing six billion tons of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, reducing global temperatures to 15 ° C and causing the period of time that was a genetic bottleneck in human evolution. The eruptions of these super volcanoes occur approximately once every 17,000 years, and between eruptions, researchers are doing everything possible to understand how these eruptions occur, what triggers them, and if there are any early signs that may indicate will produce an eruption.
Professor Danisik added:Gaining an understanding of these long periods of inactivity will determine what we look for in young active supervolcanoes to help us predict future eruptions. Super eruptions are among the most catastrophic events in Earth’s history, as they release huge amounts of magma almost instantly. They can affect the global climate to the point of dropping the Earth into a “volcanic winter,” which is an abnormally cold period that can lead to widespread hunger and population disturbances.“
Professor Danisik said:
“Learning how supervolcanoes work is important to understanding the future threat of an inevitable super-eruption, which happens about once every 17,000 years.”
“Using these geochronological data, statistical inference, and thermal modeling, we demonstrated that magma continued to flow into the caldera, or deep depression created by the magma eruption, for 5,000 to 13,000 years after the supererruption, and then the shell of solidified excess magma pushed up like a giant turtle shell “.
“The findings challenged existing knowledge and the study of eruptions, which usually involves searching for liquid magma under a volcano to assess future danger. We must now consider that eruptions can occur even if they are not found. liquid magma under a volcano: the concept of what it is needs to be re-evaluated “eruptive.”
“While a supereruption can have a regional and global impact and recovery can take decades or even centuries, our results show that the danger is not over with the supereruption and that the threat of additional dangers exists for many thousands of years later. Learning when and how eruptive magma accumulates and in what state magma is before and after these eruptions is critical to understanding supervolcanoes. “
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