Singh is seen as the most sympathetic leader in the election as Trudeau’s popularity craters: poll – National

NPD leader Jagmeet Singh has become the nicest of the federal party leaders as the popularity of Liberal leader Justin Trudeau plummets amid the election campaign, according to a new poll.

The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News found that Singh was the only party leader who looked more positive than negative, with 45% approval versus 39% disapproval among respondents.

Trudeau, on the other hand, had the highest rating of unfavorability of any leader, with 53%, while 41% said they considered it favorable.

“(Singh) represents the most serious challenge for Justin Trudeau and his leadership,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“Those (progressive) voters, who are the largest group of voters we have in the Canadian electorate, now share their loyalties between the two of them. And this is not a situation that Justin Trudeau has faced since 2015.”

The poll, which polled 1,500 Canadians online last weekend, suggests Conservative leader Erin O’Toole and Green Party leader Annamie Paul are struggling to connect with voters, even within their own parties.

Only 28% of respondents said they saw O’Toole favorably, while 48% said they were unfavorable, although 24% said they did not know the new party leader well enough to comment.

However, only 69% of likely Conservative voters were in favor of O’Toole, compared to 93% of Liberal voters who say the same about Trudeau and 92% of NPD voters who supported Singh.

“One of the really rare things in an election campaign is to see a political leader who is out of the game with his party,” Bricker said. “Therefore, he is in a difficult position with both his party and the Canadian electorate.

“But the level of dissatisfaction with the prime minister at the moment makes the possibility of Erin O’Toole improving those numbers very realistic.”

The results of the survey show that Paul is in an even worse situation. Although she had the highest number of respondents who said they did not know her well enough, with 42%, only 15% said they saw her favorably compared to 43%. And only 54% of green voters gave a positive opinion, with 22% negative and 24% insecure.

Bricker says Paul, who is still trying to get a seat in the House of Commons, is struggling to replicate the appeal and awareness that former leader Elizabeth May had. This, along with the party’s recent internal struggles, has put more pressure on him than most other leaders to perform well in the upcoming debates.

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“If you do a good job, you’ll probably see some of those numbers start to turn around,” Bricker said. “But right now, she’s not the good of the party that was Elizabeth May, it’s very clear.”

The leader of the Quebec bloc, Yves-François Blanchet, was the only leader who saw an equal number as he saw it favorably and unfavorably, with 39% of respondents in Quebec, while 89% of likely voters in Quebec blog saw him in a positive light.

Maxime Bernier, who leads the People’s Party of Canada, had the widest difference between favorability and unfavorability. Only 14% saw it positively versus 52% negatively.

Trudeau in trouble

Just a week ago, Trudeau was seen as the best choice for prime minister among Ipsos respondents, although a plurality of voters considered him unreliable.

But new polls this week have shown that the Liberals have lost the lead over the Conservatives, with both parties statistically tied in the popular vote. Meanwhile, the NDP is gaining ground and has the potential to regain at least some of the seats it lost in 2019.

The most recent survey shows that Singh outperforms Trudeau among voters aged 18 to 34: 53% favored the NDP leader, compared to 44% for Trudeau, and those aged 35 to 54 (42% vs. 37%). ). Both demographics are key to the success of the Liberals.

Bricker says that, combined with the ground the Conservatives have gained in just one week of campaigning, it poses problems for Trudeau.

“What we’re seeing right now is that the Liberal Party is fighting to fight on two fronts, and it hasn’t really had to do it to the same extent as it did in 2011, for example, because they’re right. Now “, he said.

“Something must be done (for the Liberals) not only to curb Mr. O’Toole, but in particular for Justin Trudeau (given the importance of his leadership for the Liberal Party), something must also be done to reduce the level of appeal for Mr. Singh, and what that is is not obvious. “

Meanwhile, O’Toole will face a challenge from Blanchet in Quebec, rich in seats, given Blanchet’s popularity compared to the Conservative leader. This will be particularly evident during debates over the French language, Bricker says.

“O’Toole has made some commitments on what he will do for the province of Quebec,” he said. “And no one can challenge him like a hero from his hometown like Mr. Blanchet. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how it handles this ”.

As for Singh, Bricker says he now has a lot of momentum, especially considering that the first ballots at the start of the election found the NDP to be a clear second choice among many undecided voters.

“It’s a credible alternative right now to Justin Trudeau,” he said. “So it’s absolutely an asset for the NDP ticket.”

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos survey conducted between August 20 and 23, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1,500 Canadians over the age of 18 was interviewed online through the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-Ipsos sources. Respondents get a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were used to balance the demographics to ensure that the composition of the sample reflects that of the adult population according to census data and to provide results intended to approximate the universe of the sample. The accuracy of Ipsos surveys that include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the survey has an accuracy of ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, if all Canadians had been surveyed. The range of credibility will be wider among the subsets of the population. All surveys and sample surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, coverage error and measurement error. Ipsos meets the outreach standards set by the CRIC, which can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/