MADRID (AP) – Although most of Europe kicked off 2021 with previous curfews or house arrest orders, Spanish authorities insist the new variant of the coronavirus that wreaks havoc elsewhere is not the guilty of a strong resurgence of cases and that the country can avoid a complete closure even when its hospitals are filled.
The government has been tirelessly advocating for drastic home confinement, such as the one that paralyzed the economy for nearly three months in the spring of 2020, the last time Spain was able to gain victory over the stubborn upward curve of cases.
Infection rates declined in October, but never completely flattened the summer hike. Cases began to rise again before the end of the year. Last month, 14-day rates doubled, from 188 cases per 100,000 residents on Dec. 10 to 522 per 100,000 on Thursday.
Nearly 39,000 new cases were recorded on Wednesday and more than 35,000 on Thursday, some of the highest daily increases to date.
The increase again threatens the capacity of the intensive care unit and burdens the exhausted medical workers. Some facilities have already suspended elective surgery and the city of Valencia, in the east, has reopened a makeshift hospital used last year.
Unlike Portugal, which has a one-month closing on Friday and by doubling the fines for those who do not wear a mask, Spanish officials insist it will be enough to take short, highly localized measures that restrict social gatherings without affecting the entire economy.
“We know what we have to do and we are doing it,” Salvador Illa, the health minister, said at a news conference on Wednesday, ruling out a national house confinement order and advocating “measures that were a success during the second onada “.
Fernando Simón, the government’s top virus expert, has accused Christmas of the recent rise in cases and New Year celebrations. “The new variant, while having an impact, will be marginal, at least in our country,” he said this week.
But many independent experts disagree and say that Spain does not have the capacity to carry out a widespread sequencing of samples to detect how the new variants have spread, and that 88 confirmed cases and about 200 suspects according to officials who have been imported in much of the UK are underestimating the real impact.
Dr Rafael Bengoa, former director of health systems at the World Health Organization, told The Associated Press that the government should immediately enact a “strict but short” four-week closure.
“Trying to do as little as possible so as not to affect the economy or for political reasons does not get us where we need to be,” said Bengoa, who also oversaw a profound reform of the Basque regional health system.
The situation in Spain contrasts enormously with the rest of European countries who have also shown similar strong jumps in cases, increasingly guilty of the most contagious variant first detected in the UK
The Netherlands, which has been closed for a month, has seen the pace of infections begin to slow. But with 2% to 5% of new cases of COVID-19 of the new variant, the country requires from Friday that air passengers from the UK, Ireland and South Africa present not only a negative PCR test performed a maximum of 72 hours before departure but also a rapid result of antigen testing immediately before take-off.
France, where a recent study of 100,000 positive tests produced approximately 1% of infections with the variant, imposes curfews from 6 p.m., and Health Minister Oliver Veran has not ruled out a stay-at-home order if the situation worsens.
Existing blockades or the possibility of compulsory confinement have not been questioned or made a political issue in other European countries.
Ireland instituted a complete closure after it was detected that widespread infections were linked to the new variant. Italy has a color-coded system that activates a strict lock at its highest level (or red), although there are currently no zones at this stage.
In the UK, scientific evidence of the new variant has silenced some critics of the restrictions and encouraged Prime Minister Boris Johnson to impose stricter but slightly softer measures than the nation’s first closure.. People have been ordered to stay home, except for limited travel and essential exercises, and schools have been closed, with a few exceptions.
In Germany, where the daily average of new daily cases has recently risen to 26 per 100,000 people, many senior officials argue that the existing strict confinement order needs to be tightened and extended beyond its current January expiration date.
The Nordic countries have rejected mandatory closures altogether, instead of having imposed strict restrictions on meetings and certain activities. Residents have been asked to follow specific recommendations to limit the spread of the virus.
In Sweden, the issue is both legal and political, as there is no law that allows the government to restrict the mobility of the population. While urging residents to refrain from going to the gym or library, first Swede Stefan Lofven said last month, “We don’t believe in total closure” before adding, “We follow our strategy.”
Spain’s politicians seem to take a similar approach, although it remains to be seen whether the results will prove them wrong. On Thursday they insisted that vaccinations will soon reach “cruising speed.”
But Bengoa, the former WHO expert, said vaccines will not solve the problem immediately.
“Trying to live with the virus and this data for months is to live with a very high mortality rate and with the possibility of new variants being created,” he said, adding that the new variant of the virus widely identified in the UK could make the original version starts to look “good”.
Dr. Salvador Macip, a researcher at the University of Leicester and the Open University of Catalonia, says that the combination of spiral infections and uncertainty about new variants should be sufficient for a more restrictive approach, but that fatigue for pandemic makes these decisions more difficult for countries like Spain, with a polarized policy.
“People are fed up with making sacrifices that don’t get us anywhere because they see they will have to repeat them,” Macip said.
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Associated Press writers collaborated throughout Europe.
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