JoThere was no rage over Gavin Newsom’s pandemic restrictions that ultimately put the withdrawal on the ballot. But the California governor doubled down, placing his coronavirus policies at the center of his campaign and turning his main opponent, anti-mask, anti-vaccine radio host Larry Elder, into a dangerous Trump representative. .
This winning strategy could have national implications for both Democrats and Republicans who were already looking to mid-2022.
“Democrats running in other parts of the country next year would do well to study Newsom’s playbook very carefully,” said Dan Schnur, a professor of politics at several universities. “Newsom was able to take the issue of Covid, which could have been a fatal weakness for him, and was able to turn him into a considerable force.”
James Lance Taylor, political scientist at the University of San Francisco.
“At least in some states, particularly blue states and some purple states, Newsom’s strategy has offered a model for Democratic candidates,” Taylor added.
That Newsom triumphed over retirement by such a large margin also placed him in an ideal position to run for national office in the coming years, Taylor said. The state experienced a huge increase in Covid last winter and Newsom has had to make great strides including an initially slow deployment of vaccines, but overall the governor could present a national case that his leadership in pandemic saved lives.
The withdrawal has also exposed the possible limits of Trump’s politics in a post-Trump era, says Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy, a nonpartisan research organization. A more moderate candidate could have appealed to Democrats willing to try something new, a strategy that helped Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger prevail over Democrat Gray Davis in the last California election in 2003.
“A lot of people voted against the withdrawal because they feared Larry Elder would become governor,” he said. “It doesn’t mean they were happy with Newsom.”
In fact, several voters the Guardian spoke to before the election said they feared that California, under Elder’s leadership, could follow the path of Florida and Texas. “I’m with a lot of people who might want to remember Gavin, but she’s not necessarily in favor of having Larry Elder there,” said John Friedrich, a retiree living in Stockton, California, about an hour south of the capital. , Sacramento.
Still, this may not weaken the Republican Party’s ties to Trumpism. Elder, who did not win the governor’s seat, captured the largest proportion of votes among Newsom’s challenges, indicating that while he lacked broad appeal, he energized the right-wing minority voice of the state. Elder, who hinted at a 2022 concession speech on Tuesday, has recycled the former president’s “big lie” conspiracy theory that the Republican election lost was rigged against them.
“What we have learned from memory is that Republicans are not prepared for a post-Trump era. They are doubling Trump,” said Schnur, who has advised Conservative candidates. “If they want to regain congressional majorities next year, that can be a big deal.”
However, the peculiarities of the California recovery process and the unique political structure of the state confuse attempts to view it as a broad barometer for national politics. Opposition Conservatives opposed Newsom, a popularly popular governor who won office in 2018 by a historic margin, were able to trigger a withdrawal election by gathering just 1.7 million signatures in a state with 22 million voters registered. Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one here, meaning any Democratic candidate already has a significant mathematical advantage, regardless of their strategy.
But for the race to even appear in the coming weeks before election day could be a lesson for California Democrats and, nationally, that they will have to work hard to gather apathetic voters, especially minority voters who have long been they feel abandoned by their elected leaders.
When polls in August found that distracted and disengaged Democratic voters, especially Latino voters, who make up about 32 percent of eligible voters, could cost the governor their seat, the Newsom campaign revolted. “There was a crazy line up to the end to talk to as many Latino voters as possible,” said Christian Arana, vice president of the Foundation for the Latino Community. “But what these elections really showed was that dissemination to Latino voters has to happen soon and often.”
Votes are still being counted in California and the final count and demographic breakdowns are not yet available. But according to Political Data Inc’s calculations, only 30% of the ballots sent to Latino voters were returned earlier, while the ballots sent to white voters had a 50% return rate. Fewer people tend to vote in special elections than in presidential or mid-term elections, but in all cases, “turnout in elections is not representative of the population,” Romero said.
“Colored voters have helped turn California into such a solid blue state and were clearly key to Newsom’s victory,” he added. “Now I think Democrats can turn it into an opportunity to get to know voters better and build a better relationship with black voters.”