If I had asked you to predict 12 and a half months ago when the United States began to block whether suicides and fatalities would rise or fall in 2020, you would have imagined that there would be many more of the former and far fewer of the latter. . And when I say “you,” I mean all of you. It seemed a consummate fact that mass unemployment plus intense social isolation plus the stress of multiple life disorders (e.g., school closure) leading to a pandemic life would lead some people to take their own lives that in time normal would have been fine. And because so many businesses and jobs were closed and so many Americans were afraid to congregate and risk infection, there would be far fewer reasons to drive and therefore fewer dangerous car accidents.
Elementary logic in both cases. He is also wrong in both cases.
First, traffic deaths:
The National Nonprofit Security Council estimates in a report released Thursday that 42,060 people died in vehicle accidents in 2020, an increase of 8% over 2019 and the first jump in four years.
In addition, the mortality rate for every 100 million miles driven increased by 24%, the highest annual percentage since the council began collecting data in 1923 …
Last year’s deaths were most since 2007, when 43,945 people died in vehicle accidents. In addition, the safety council estimates that 4.8 million people were injured in crashes last year.
Traffic deaths increased last year, although Americans drove 13% fewer miles than in 2019. How?
Circumstantial evidence points to greater risk-taking by drivers. USA Today notes that the Minnesota State Patrol delivered twice as many tickets to drive more than 100 km / h last year as during 2019. Precisely because the roads are less congested, drivers drive like maniacs means more fatal accidents. Hit a stick at 40 mph and you could survive; hit the same pole at 80 mph and no. Pandemic stress probably also contributes: a driver who is depressed with many things on his mind is a more distracted driver. And increased alcohol and drug use during the pandemic should mean that there is a higher proportion of people who are behind the wheel under the influence.
Long summary, it’s basically Thunderdome on American roads. It drives fewer people, but the average driver you meet is likely to be in a dangerously bad head space. Result: more deaths.
It is more difficult to explain the decline in suicides:
Politicians have repeatedly told us that the blockades are causing a growing number of deaths from suicide. We kept asking to see the data. Now we have it, and apparently, that wasn’t true. In 2020, suicide deaths were lower than in the previous three years. https://t.co/YbLCmd0c3o pic.twitter.com/PNEshYyQfV
– Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD 🏴☠️ (@TheAngryEpi) April 4, 2021
It seems so unlikely that you are wondering if the data is correct. I have to keep in mind that it’s “preliminary,” so maybe it’ll finally be revised up. But suppose it is accurate. What could explain it? I asked this question on Twitter and received several clever answers:
1. Although suicides have fallen, fatal overdoses are on the rise. It is possible that some people who were depressed and eventually ended their lives due to ODs before they could do so due to more intense drug use.
2. In the same way, a certain number of people, especially the elderly, who allegedly died by suicide ended up succumbing to COVID before he could.
3. Despite mass unemployment, some lower-class finances may have temporarily improved due to stimulus controls and strengthened federal unemployment. A Gallup poll last June, two months after the closures began, found more Americans optimistic about their finances than in 2017. Some who may have succumbed to despair and killed themselves due to poverty in normal times could have received CVVID Relief.
4. Forcing people to isolate themselves from their families may have led them to have more meaningful social interactions, which increased their mood. I have heard many parents say how much they have enjoyed quality extra time with their children this past year, despite the difficulties in getting them educated. It is possible that some adults who were soaked in life due to work pressure may have obtained an unexpected check of the prospect of spending more time with loved ones and regaining the will to live.
5, suicidal people rarely do the fact in front of others. Even if someone who commits suicide does not enjoy the extra time with family, as a purely logistical issue, quarantine has left them less time. How Alex Griswold he says, spouses and children are in a situation where they are forced, however, to watch each other 24 hours a day. Fewer opportunities for suicide means fewer suicides.
6. Some of us do it better alone than when we are forced to mix with others. Someone with social anxiety who no longer has to go to the office every day and feel “judged” by those around them may have decreased stress after letting him work from home. Or perhaps the opposite is true: people who are left alone and were depressed by having little pre-pandemic social contact, suddenly saw others approaching them to say hello to them as pandemic loneliness spread through the population. It is possible that this little extra virtual socialization has been enough to prevent some suicides.
7. Many Twitter friends pointed out that knowing that other people are isolated may have led some depressed people to feel less bad about themselves. It’s easy to despair when things seem to be going well for everyone but you; the “what’s wrong with me, why can’t I be happy?” FOMO factor aggravates misery. But when everyone is miserable for the same reason, the depressed person no longer judges himself so harshly. Suddenly, everyone is on the same boat, even if they are in their small secluded cabin. Eliminating the fear of getting lost may have saved some lives.
The downside of all this is that most of the factors point to an increase in suicide once the pandemic is over. The FOMO factor will return drastically as most Americans start partying; loners will be forced to return to the office in many cases; families will disperse during the day; federal greatness will end. Of course, there will also be more opportunities to socialize avoid some suicides by people who would have killed themselves if they had been forced to isolate themselves at home for much longer. But if we were to predict now whether more or less people will die by their own hand in 2021 than last year, I don’t know that “less” is a strong bet just because the country will soon return to normal.
By the way, look back at the 2020 column from the previous tweet. Deaths rise sharply in a diverse number of categories, from diabetes to stroke to Alzheimer’s to heart disease to unintentional injuries. One of the reasons for this may be the list of comorbidities as causes contributing to death certificates in COVID cases. Another, I suppose, is the greater reluctance of people to seek medical treatment for non-COVID-related conditions during the pandemic for fear of being infected in the hospital. I remember the New York City EMTs reported last spring that the number of people they would find dead in their homes upon arrival after the 911 call was tremendously higher than a normal year. Presumably this is due to the fact that many Americans tried to manage their pre-existing diseases as best they could on their own, seeking to move away from medical offices, and only sought help when they reached the point of crisis. COVID did not cause these deaths, but was a major indirect contributor.