The climate crisis is affecting our planet to such an extent, summers in the northern hemisphere could last half the year by 2100, scientists have warned.
This does not mean longer days resting in the sun, but dramatic impacts on human health, agriculture and ecology.
While a prolonged period of warm weather may initially seem appealing, such a significant change in seasons can cause huge disruptions in ecosystems that are often finely balanced in terms of weather and temperatures.
From extensive heat waves and forest fires, to changes in migratory patterns affecting the food chain, the study concludes that if global warming continues at the current rate, the risks to humanity will only be more severe. over time, and changes are already taking place.
Changes recorded and planned in northern hemisphere stations. (Wang et al. 2020, Geophysical Research Letters, AGU)
“Summers are getting longer and hotter, while winters are getting shorter and hotter because of global warming,” says physical oceanographer Yuping Guan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. “More often than not, I’ve read some unstable weather reports, for example, fake spring or May snow, and the like.”
The researchers examined historical daily climate data from 1952 to 2011, marking the days with the 25% highest temperatures during those years as the summer months and those with the coldest temperatures as the winter months.
The analysis revealed that summer grew from an average of 78 days to 95 days from 1952 to 2011 and winter decreased from 76 days to 73 days. Spring and autumn also decreased, 9 days and 5 days respectively. Although spring and summer have started progressively earlier, fall and winter have started later.
The team then turned to future climate models to predict how these trends could continue through the turn of the century, finding that the northern hemisphere could have a summer that would begin in early May and end in mid-October. 2100.
This is a potentially dangerous development for all sorts of reasons: it would mean more time with allergenic pollen in the air, for example, and the subsequent spread of disease-carrying tropical mosquitoes, to name just two consequences.
“Numerous studies have already shown that seasonal changes cause significant environmental and health risks,” Guan says.
According to data collected since 1952, the Mediterranean region and the Tibetan plateau have undergone the greatest change in terms of seasonal cycles, but no part of the planet is likely to escape the effects of climate change.
As temperatures change upward, we see the world’s weather patterns change beyond the point of no return, and each weather variation has an impact on the oceans and land below.
If we can get out of the confines of a planet that is heating up out of our control, it is important to gather as much data as possible to inform the kind of difficult decisions that will be needed.
“This is a good general starting point for understanding the implications of seasonal change,” says Scott Sheridan, a climate scientist at Kent State University who did not participate in the study.
The research has been published in Geophysical research letters.