Space will become more congested over the next few decades as more countries and companies can access it and economies become more dependent on space-based technologies.
Why it’s important: Although space is infinite, the Earth’s orbital capacity is not, and this increase in traffic around the planet can catalyze new competencies and collaborations between nations.
Space will become more congested over the next few decades, as more countries and companies can access it and economies will depend on space-based technologies.
Why it’s important: Although space is infinite, the Earth’s orbital capacity is not, and this increase in traffic around the planet can catalyze new competencies and collaborations between nations.
What is happening: Annual satellite launches have doubled since 2019, according to data from the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.
- It’s a trend that shows no signs of slowing down, as analysts project that as many as 50,000 satellites could be orbiting the planet in the next decade, according to the U.S. Space Development Agency.
The big picture: “The more actors you have in the space, the more people you will have something at stake in this shared environment,” says Todd Harrison, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
- “This could bring countries together to set better rules, policies and regulations on how we use space,” Harrison says.
- On the other hand, “it is more likely that there may be conflicting interests. And when you have conflicting interests, this could lead to conflicts,” he adds.
Details: Increased competition and the specter of a space conflict are likely to drive more countries to develop and deploy anti-satellite weapons.
- Countries can choose to retain these weapons to deter attacks on their satellites, even if they never use them, Harrison says. The attacks that separate the satellites are dangerous not only for the recipients, but for any nation or company that has a satellite in the manner of the rubble.
- Weapons that use electromagnetic pulses, lasers, and microwaves to temporarily disable or blind targets can be attractive alternatives because they do not create debris, and such attacks can be difficult to attribute to a particular actor.
Yes, but: It is unclear whether this strategy of building weapons but not using them, which has worked so far for nuclear weapons, could prevent a space skirmish because the consequences of satellite warfare would be less severe than nuclear war, he says. Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation.
What to see: Behavioral rules and regulations in space, such as defining how satellites should approach and how to conduct responsible weapons testing in space, could help maintain a relatively safe space environment.
- However, enforcing these rules and regulations and avoiding collisions would require a better way to track and manage objects in orbit, says Victoria Samson, an analyst at the Secure World Foundation.
- Establishing international agreements for best practices in space would be difficult, Weeden says, but they would not have to be adopted unanimously to work. If several countries adhere to it, this could be enough to recognize, condemn and curb irresponsible behavior.