WASHINGTON (AP) – Rapid changes in Afghanistan are forcing the Biden administration to face the prospect of a resurgent al-Qaeda, the group that attacked the United States on September 11, 2001, in at the same time that the United States is trying to stay on the sidelines. violent extremism at home and cyberattacks by Russia and China.
With the rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces and the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, “I think Al Qaeda has a chance and they will seize that opportunity,” says Chris Costa, who was a senior counter-terrorism director. in the Trump Administration.
“This is a galvanizing event for jihadists everywhere.”
Al Qaeda’s ranks have shrunk significantly with 20 years of war in Afghanistan and it is unclear whether the group will have the capacity in the near future to carry out catastrophic attacks on America, such as the strikes in the United States. September 11, especially considering how the United States has fortified itself over the past two decades with surveillance and other protection measures.
But a June UN Security Council report said senior group leadership remains present in Afghanistan, along with hundreds of armed operatives. He noted that the Taliban, which protected al-Qaeda fighters before the 9/11 attacks, “remain close, based on friendship, a history of shared struggle, ideological sympathy and marriage.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby acknowledged on Friday that al-Qaeda remains a presence in Afghanistan, although it is difficult to quantify it due to the country’s reduced intelligence-gathering capacity and “why it’s not like they carry ID cards and register somewhere. “
Even within the country, al-Qaeda and the Taliban represent just two of the urgent concerns of terrorism, as evidenced by the unease over the potential for Islamic State attacks on Americans in Afghanistan that during the weekend forced the U.S. military. develop new ways to get evacuees to Kabul airport. The Taliban and IS have fought each other in the past, but the concern now is that Afghanistan may once again be a safe haven for multiple extremists determined to attack the United States or other countries.
President Joe Biden has repeatedly spoken of what he calls a “capacity of the horizon” that he says will allow the U.S. to track terrorist threats from afar. His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters Monday that Biden was clear that counterterrorism capabilities had evolved to the point that the threat could be suppressed without a strong presence of boots on the ground. He said the intelligence community does not believe al-Qaeda currently has the capability to attack the United States.
Presumably, the United States also predicts that strengthening airport control and more sophisticated surveillance may be more effective than 20 years ago in thwarting an attack. But experts are concerned that the intelligence-gathering capabilities needed as an early warning system against an attack will be adversely affected by the withdrawal of troops.
An additional complication is the large volume of urgent threats to national security that worsen what the U.S. government faced before the 9/11 attacks. These include sophisticated cyber operations from China and Russia that could paralyze critical infrastructure or ruin sensitive secrets, nuclear ambitions in Iran, and a rising threat of internal terrorism exposed by the Jan. 6 insurgency at the U.S. Capitol. .
FBI Director Chris Wray has described the threat as “metastic,” with the number of arrests of racially motivated white supremacists and extremists nearly tripling since his first year in office.
“My concern is that 2001 cannot be compared to today,” said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University. There is a “much broader and better organized bureaucracy,” he said, but it is laden with demands not specifically linked to terrorism.
Hoffman said that while he did not believe al-Qaeda could quickly use Afghanistan as a launcher for attacks on the United States, it could restore “its coordinating role” in the region to work and encourage strikes. of its affiliates. – a patient strategy that can still be vindicated.
“Terrorist groups don’t adjust to train or flight schedules,” Hoffman said. “They do things when it suits them and, as al-Qaeda was doing, they lay the groundwork quietly in the hope that this foundation will end up affecting or determining its success.”
The concern is resounding enough because Biden administration officials told Congress last week that, depending on developments, terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda are now believed. it may be able to grow much faster than expected. In June, top Pentagon leaders said an extremist group like al-Qaeda could regenerate in Afghanistan and pose a threat to the U.S. homeland within two years of the withdrawal of the northern army. -American.
The 9/11 attacks made Al Qaeda the most internationally recognized terrorist group, but at least in the last decade, the most powerful threat in the United States has come from individuals inspired by the Islamic State, who it has caused deadly massacres like those of San Bernardino, California and Orlando.
But al-Qaeda virtually disappeared. U.S. authorities alleged last year that a Saudi gunman who killed three U.S. sailors at a military base in Florida in 2019 had contacted al-Qaeda agents about planning and tactics. Last December, the Justice Department charged a Kenyan in an attempt to stage an 11/11-style attack on the United States on behalf of the al-Shabab terrorist organization, which is linked to al-Qaeda.
Other extremists may now be inspired by al-Qaeda, even if they are not led by him.
“Until recently, I would have said that the threat of the al-Qaeda core is quite modest. They had no safe haven in Afghanistan, their senior leadership was scattered,” said Nathan Sales, a former anti-Qaeda coordinator. State Department terrorism.
But now with the Taliban back in control, “all that could change and could change very quickly.”
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