The parallel between the departure of Vijay Rupani and that of Anandiben Patel could not be more surprising and ironic.
The replacement of Anandiben by Rupani in August 2016 was seen as a clever political move by then-BJP President Amit Shah a year before the Assembly elections.
Anandiben, named CM by Narendra Modi, who left for New Delhi to take over as prime minister in 2014, suffered a setback: the Patidar agitation, led by Hardik Patel, now acting president of the state Congress, foreshadowed the party anguish. most local bodies in December 2015. The Dalits were then publicly whipped to Una in 2016, which ran nationally before the UP elections.
To mitigate Patidars, the Anandiben government announced a 10% reserve for the economically backward class in the general category, an announcement by Rupani from the party office that was considered a disagreement with Anandiben.
Rupani was a minister in his government and head of state unity.
With the departure of Rupani on Saturday, a year ahead of the December 2022 polls, the tables turn to reflect the changing contours of power in the BJP of Gujarat.
Rupani has been criticized for his failure to manage the pandemic: the restrictions of the Gujarat High Court were harsh and regular. Also, by many accounts from within, he had failed to emerge as a “strong and efficient leader who could lead the party in elections.” In fact, the rise of the Aam Aadmi party as a political force in the state was attributed by many of its critics to its “inefficient leadership”.
In 2016, a section of the BJP had wanted Nitin Patel to replace Anandiben, but Shah got his way and Rupani, considered close to him, got the job.
This time, the circumstances alter the cases. Rupani’s resignation comes days after the state executive meeting was attended by Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in Shah’s obvious absence.
Sources said Shah, who continues to play a key role in the organization and functioning of the BJP, will share responsibilities in the BJP of Gujarat with BL Santhosh (general secretary, organization); Mansukh Mandaviya (chosen by hand by Modi to be Union Health Minister); JP Nadda (President of the BJP); CR Paatil (again, chosen by Modi to be head of the Gujarat unit); and the new chief minister.
There is talk of the party over the advancement of the elections early next year, when it is to be won in five states, including the UP. This would also allow the party to choose a member who is not a member of the MLA, as legal opinion and CM are sought, sources said. However, fighting UP and Gujarat at the same time will be a challenge for the party, a leader said.
The change of guard in Gujarat is in line with the BJP’s new pattern of mixing chief ministers. In fact, between 2014 and 2019, Anandiben’s departure was an exception to the norm: the party was reluctant to replace the CMs despite requests for change in state units like Jharkhand, Rajasthan or Haryana.
By contrast, in July, the party’s central leadership called on chief minister BS Yeddyurappa to resign in Karnataka four months ago and ordered Tirath Singh Rawat to leave only four months after he was appointed Uttarakhand CM. Both were under pressure from their faction-assembled state units.
There were some early indications to switch to Gujarat. Paatil was introduced as president of the state unit in July last year before the crucial local election. Paatil, who replaced Jitu Vaghani, a Patel by caste and a protégé of the Shah, was always considered a hard-core loyalist.
Subsequently, there were key changes in the organization, including the appointment of Ratnakar to replace Bhikhubhai Dalsaniya – who had worked with Shah – as general secretary of the organization. Dalsaniya was appointed general secretary (organization) of the Bihar unit.
Another key fact was the elevation of Mandaviya and Parshottam Rupala as cabinet ministers – both considered close to Modi.
However, BJP leaders stressed that Rupani changed after the leadership was “convinced” that the party could not go to the polls under his leadership.
“While the elections will be fought in Modi’s face anyway, the party needed to send a message that it had strong and effective leadership in the state,” a party MP said.
Rupani was seen as the first Jain to become CM, an influential minority in the state. But under his leadership, the BJP acted miserably in the 2017 Assembly elections by winning only 99 of the 182 seats.
Although he regained the majority of constituencies in the by-elections and local elections earlier this year, the achievement was seen largely as that of Paatil.
When asked why he was being replaced now, one of the top BJP officials in Gujarat said, “We could wear nice clothes, but we want to change them and get new ones, right? People always want a change.”
Rupani’s resignation came as Paryushan, the period of penance for Jains ended on Saturday, when the community apologized.