In a disturbing milestone, the availability of ICU beds in hospitals across the bay area on Wednesday fell below 15% for the first time, prompting state regulations that will put all counties in the region under an order of permanence in house.
The region had 12.9% of ICU beds open on Wednesday, according to the state health services department.
In much of the bay area, there will be no changes. Six of the nine counties in the Bay Area had already adopted the harshest rules last week, when Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma enacted them as a precautionary measure. In doing so, health officials had relied on curbing the incessant number of COVID-19 cases in the area and preventing hospitals from reaching their capacity.
A seventh county that the state includes in the Bay Area region, Monterey, on Sunday also took that step.
But four other neighboring counties – San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Napa and Solano – had not set the deepest restrictions. They will see that the order to stay at home becomes effective at 11:59 p.m. on Thursday.
“Our hospitals and health care system are at the breaking point,” said Dr. Gail Newel, Santa Cruz County Health Officer, adding, “Our actions will now help us return to our normal life sooner rather than later “.
According to the rules of stay at home, all restaurants must close open-air restaurants, although they may still be open to deliver and pick them up. Retail stores and malls are limited to a maximum of 20% of customer capacity, with the need to measure input. Grocery stores have a limited capacity of 35%. Bars, nail salons, barbershops, hairdressers and tattoo parlors need to be closed. Covered gyms, along with zoos, museums, aquariums and movie theaters, must also close.
Churches can only have outdoor services. And hotels can only rent rooms to essential workers, such as doctors or nurses.
Restrictions must remain in effect for at least three weeks, until January 8th. After that, they will be removed when the bed capacity of the ICU of a region is equal to or greater than 15%.
Schools that are already open to face-to-face learning can remain open. Non-urgent medical offices and dental offices can do the same. Parks, playgrounds, beaches and open spaces remain open. But the campsites are closed.
“The news is not good right now,” said Dr. Marty Fenstersheib, a Santa Clara County health worker. “There are more cases. People are dying. Right now we are seeing more cases than we have ever seen of this pandemic in Santa Clara County. We now average more than 1,000 cases a day. In July, when we thought things were pretty bad, we were seeing about 300 cases a day, so we tripled. “
Fenstersheib said the launch of the Pfizer vaccine this week “is expected to mark the end of this pandemic.” But he noted that it will take months for most bay residents to get it.
Until then, he urged people to be vigilant, wear masks, social distance and not travel to visit other people during the holidays. He noted that his own father is 94 years old and this year they will not be together.
“I can’t go visit him for holidays and I’m very sad about that,” Fenstersheib said. “But he knows it and I know this is the way to protect each other. We are watching and we hope that we will all be together next Christmas ”.
Two weeks ago, when Governor Gavin Newom first announced the new home stay rules, he cited estimates from medical experts that the bay area would fall below the ICU bed threshold of 15% in mid or late December.
This was based on the number of cases that rose sharply after Thanksgiving, when families across the state ignored or downplayed health warnings and gathered in indoor settings, which spread the virus.
Doctors worry that similar gatherings around Christmas and other upcoming holidays, including travel, could increase cases. On Monday and Tuesday, days after the FDA approved a Pfizer vaccine, doctors, nurses and other front-line workers across California received their first shots offering protection. The FDA is expected to approve another vaccine, manufactured by Moderna, on Friday.
Newsom said it expects California to receive 2.1 million doses by the end of this month.
“This is a time for hope, and it is also a time to be vigilant as we face the most intense increase so far,” Newsom said on Tuesday. “Although we have prepared for this wave of beds and equipment, the lack of staff is real and affects our medical system. There’s light at the end of the tunnel and I call on all Californians to do our part to get it done: wear a mask, reduce the mix, stay home, stop the spread, and save lives. Together we will succeed. “
The Bay Area region, where COVID is spreading at a slower rate than Southern California and the Central Valley, is the fourth of the five California regions that are now moving to the stop order. In recent weeks, Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley, and the Great Sacramento regions had already fallen below the 15% threshold.
In all, 47 of California’s 58 counties were under house arrest on Wednesday. They are home to 39 million of California’s 40 million residents.
Only the Northern California region, which includes mostly rural counties, still remains above 15% of available beds in the ICU. There, the capacity of the ICU was 28.1%. Wednesday in the Greater Sacramento region was 14.1%. In the San Joaquin Valley, it was 0%, with no beds available in the ICU. And in Southern California, it was 0.5%.