According to two senior government officials, key members of Biden’s COVID response team warn internally that the United States will not be able to achieve herd immunity until Thanksgiving or even early winter ( months later than originally calculated).
In an interview with CBS News this week, President Joe Biden hinted at some of these concerns and said it would be “very difficult” to achieve the herd’s immunity – a population-wide resistance to the virus – “long before end the summer ”. with the current daily rate of approximately 1.3 million vaccine doses. Other senior officials working on the federal government’s response to COVID-19 say they are not concerned about the long-term vaccine supply and the impact on the herd’s immunity, and have begun exploring ways to expand the herd’s manufacturing capacity. USA, potentially through new partnerships with external pharmaceutical companies.
Beyond supply problems, however, top health officials say they are increasingly concerned about COVID-19 variants in the UK and South Africa, the likelihood that more variants will appear in the coming months and the possibility that these variants avoid vaccines. There is some evidence to suggest that both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines protect against variant B117 in the UK, although a recent study shows that a new mutation could make vaccines less effective. Data collected by the clinical trials of Novavax and Johnson and Johnson in South Africa suggest that their vaccines are less effective against the rapidly spreading variant in the country. And South Africa recently said it was stopping the deployment of the AstraZeneca vaccine because evidence from clinical trials suggested the vaccine was not working well against the variant.
Together, recent data has alarmed Biden administration health officials who are now asking questions about what more can be done not only to shorten the herd’s immunity calendar, not just to return Americans to a certain normalcy. , but also to ensure that the country does so. not to experience another increase in hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19. Officials have spent the past few days discussing ways to increase genome sequencing to track variants and how to get the message across that Americans need to follow public health guidelines more closely to reduce transmission. as cases of B117 variants begin to increase.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, who previously estimated that about 75 percent of the U.S. population should be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, said in an interview that it is still “precautionarily optimistic” that the country can achieve this goal in the early fall.
“I still think that’s possible,” Fauci said. “As I said before, once we start getting a mass vaccination, when the general public starts receiving it in late spring (April, May, June …) and we overcome any vacant hesitation, we should be able to get there 70 or 75 percent mark. Let’s go in the right direction. ”Fauci warned of this prediction by emphasizing the fact that he has constant concerns about new variants of COVID-19.
At a press conference on Monday, Fauci said the modeling indicates that variant B117 “could become dominant by the end of March.” “This is worrying news,” he said. “The two things we can do are: A, make sure we comply with public health measures … and, B, vaccinate as many people as quickly as we can.” Vaccine rates have begun to improve across the country in recent days. And the Biden administration continues to advertise increases in the number of doses states receive each week.
However, the director of the Centers for Disease Control, Dra. Rochelle Walensky said Monday that the proliferation of variants “remains a major concern and is a threat that could reverse the recent positive trends we are seeing.” As of this week, 699 cases have been confirmed varying in 34 states, and 690 of those cases are variant B117, the variant that was first reported in the UK, Walensky said.
“The good news is that even with B117 as the dominant variant … cases plummeted when people stopped having contact, when people wore masks … That’s the key. We need to give a viral enemy less chance to speak.”
– former CDC director Tom Frieden
“The virus will continue to mutate no matter what we do. The types of mutations we will see will change as more people are vaccinated. And natural immunity will continue to put evolutionary pressure on the virus. Therefore, we will see different types of mutations that can help it escape vaccine protection or become more transmissible, ”said Rajeev Venkayya, president of the vaccine business at Takeda Pharmaceuticals, which is not involved in the response. COVID. “I think the number one will affect the offer [and access], right now has more vaccines, proving their effectiveness and safety. And here, I think the story is very, very promising. ”
With the threats of the new variants becoming clearer, the message from both Biden officials and health experts is clear: Go back to basics. Follow the public health guidelines the CDC has recommended over the past year: masks, social distancing, and limited inner contact.
“The more transmissible these virus strains are, the more threshold is needed for the herd’s immunity. The B117 variant … is very worrying, ”said Tom Frieden, former director of CDC. “The good news is that even with B117 as the dominant variant in the UK and elsewhere … cases plummeted when people stopped having contact, when people wore masks, when you have people who he doesn’t share indoor air with people who are not from his home. That’s the key. We need to give a viral enemy less chance to talk.
However, many cities across the country are moving in the opposite direction and restrictions are beginning to loosen. In New York and New Jersey, for example, officials have begun to allow for increased indoor dining and other covered events, such as weddings. The Iowa governor has just lifted the state’s mask mandate.
Walensky withdrew Monday against these new guidelines and told reporters he discouraged any measures to loosen the masking guidelines. “We’re still in more than 100,000 cases a day,” he said. “I think we still have to control this pandemic. We still have this emerging threat of variants. And I would simply discourage any of these activities. We really need to keep all mitigation measures in place if we are to really control this pandemic. “
Atul Gawande, a former member of President Biden COVID-19’s transition advisory board, said in an interview that vaccination is not the only way to combat the new variants.
“We will need more than vaccines for strains. We have a very high viral circulation rate. Therefore, we will continue to generate new strains. The fact that we have already seen strains that have some diminished effectiveness for vaccines suggests where we might find them, “Gawande said.” We will have a year that will take a long time, not just to reach people. We will have significant populations of the population who have not yet received the vaccine, either because they do not want it or want it or are waiting for it. We will have a significant spread. The variants are increasingly defeating monoclonal antibodies. “