A two-day conference in Boston attended by 175 biotech executives in February could detect 300,000 corona virus cases across the United States, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Science.
The conference, co-chaired by the drug company Biogen, was one of the earliest examples of an epidemic that epidemiologists call “exaggerated events,” where crowds lead to numerous epidemics. But the new genetic data, which have been made public by several states in recent months, have for the first time allowed researchers to assess the national scope of its surprising ripple effect.
Bronwin Magnes, a genetic epidemiologist at the Broad Institute at Harvard and MIT, said: “When you listen to the stories of 20 or 50 or 100 affected clusters, it’s not because of what happens next.
To monitor the spread, the researchers used a type of genetic fingerprint identified in virus samples taken from 28 people who attended the meeting. An earlier edition of the study, published online in June, said the conference had sown tens of thousands of cases in the Boston area alone.
By March, researchers had discovered that viruses bearing the same signature were beginning to appear in the genomes of corona viruses taken from patients in several states. But by November, marker-borne viruses were found in 29 states, numbering 70,000 in Florida alone. As viral genetic data linked to U.S. cases have increased tenfold since June, researchers are able to generate a reliable national estimate. The conference is responsible for 1.9 percent of all cases in the United States since the outbreak.
The majority of exposure to the virus in a workplace or home or community, the researchers noted. But the study illustrates how a local phenomenon with a mobile population can sow national explosion. Because the genetic fingerprints identified among the biogen participants were previously in Europe, the researchers said they could not reliably estimate how many transactions came from the Boston event worldwide.
Although the corona virus occurs biogenically when most Americans are not on the radar, it could have significant implications for the current epidemic. The first, eagerly awaited vaccines to protect against severe, Govt-19 symptoms have been proven, but it is not known whether they protect people from spreading the virus.
We risk leaving everyone thinking “everything is fine,” Dr. McIntyre said. “Our data reminds us of what happens when the exchange is verified.”