Los Angeles Rams rider Darrell Henderson, 27, is released for a touchdown as Arizona Cardinals cornerback Byron Murphy, 33, chases during the second half of an NFL football game. Sunday, December 6, 2020, in Glendale, Arizona (AP) Photo / Rick Scuteri)
Win and they are there.
The Arizona Cardinals dug deep Saturday in losing to the San Francisco 49ers and put their hopes in the playoffs in the hands of others. But after Sunday’s games, he’s back to a simple formula.
All they have to do to get to the NFL playoffs is win this coming Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams to jump the 9-6 division rival.
An Arizona win (8-7) would tie both teams with 9-7 records to end the regular season. By splitting their face-to-face games, the Cardinals will own the tiebreaker with a better record in the NFC West division.
Arizona would be the sixth seed if they win and the Chicago Bears fall to the Green Bay Packers in week 17. The Cardinals would be the seventh seed if they win and the Bears also win because Chicago has a tiebreaker over Arizona.
What are the chances of the Cardinals winning the Rams to make the playoffs?
Here are the latest projections from ESPN, FiveThirtyEight and Lasdsmakers after Rams quarterback Jared Goff was ruled out due to his thumb injury suffered last week.
It is hoped that these figures can be adjusted once there is more clarity about the condition of Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who is working due to a low leg injury.
ESPN
On Monday morning, Arizona had a 40.7% chance of beating the Rams, according to the Football Power Index (FPI).
Those odds on Tuesday morning dropped to 37.4% after Monday night’s game between the Bills and the Patriots; suppose a 38-9 win for Buffalo had the formula to judge Arizona’s loss against New England more harshly.
FPI takes quarterback absences into account. Goff’s backup, John Wolford, only has a limited portion of last season’s preseason games, and given how little Goff has played lately, well, maybe that’s also taken into account in the declining Cardinals probabilities.
FiveThirtyEight
Compared to ESPN, the website was already more favorable to the odds of winning on the Cardinals road, giving them a 49% chance of beating the Rams as of Monday.
On Tuesday, Arizona got a 6% drop to make it a lightweight favorite with a 55% chance of making the postseason after a win.
Possibilities
The Las Vegas line in the game opened in favor of Los Angeles by -4 to -5 and had yet to be updated after Goff was ruled out by the Rams.
Murray’s availability will likely have some weight on the final odds facing the game.
