The president of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, Armin Laschet (L), and the president of the Bavarian state and the president of the Christian Social Union (CSU), Markus Soeder, arrive at a joint press conference with reason for a closed-door faction meeting of CDU and CSU on April 11, 2021 in Berlin, Germany.
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In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the conservative alliance of German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally selected a candidate to represent the center-right bloc in the country’s national elections later this year, after months of uncertainty. and delay.
Until then, neither the Center-Right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) nor its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had been able to agree on who should lead the Conservatives in the May 26 elections. September. Merkel announced in 2018 that she would not run for a fifth term.
At a CDU board meeting, however, a majority of party members voted for the appointment of Armin Laschet, the leader of the CDU and North Rhine-Westphalia’s first state, as a candidate for chancellor for in this year’s election.
About 77.5% (31 members) of the party’s federal executive committee voted in favor of the party leader, according to reports from the German press Deutsche Welle and Reuters, citing sources, while his rival Markus Soeder received only 9 votes.
The CDU tweeted during the night that there has been “a long and intense debate among members of the 17 regional associations, district associations and associations about people, electoral prospects and the mood at the base of the party “before the vote in favor of Laschet.
Soeder, who leads the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the CSU, said on Tuesday he accepted the decision and would support Laschet, wishing him “great success because of the difficult challenge,” Reuters reported.
Party spirit
The inability of the alliance to present a candidate so far had been the source of frustration for CDU-CSU officials and had not been lost on the part of opposition politicians who could influence the formation of a new government. in September.
The CDU-CSU is making progress in several opinion polls, but the Greens are not far behind. Four surveys conducted in mid-April in Germany place support for the alliance at around 28-31%, while in the same surveys support for the Greens is between 20-22%.
Strategists hope that the most likely outcome of the election is that the CDU-CSU will form a coalition with the Greens. While there is little chance that if the CDU-CSU performs very poorly, the Greens could form a coalition with other parties such as the Social Democrats or the Free Democratic Party.
On Monday, the Green Party confirmed that Annalena Baerbock will be its candidate for the next German chancellor.
Jürgen Trittin, a member of the Bundestag and former leader of the Green Party of Germany, told CNBC on Monday that the party now had external possibilities that could even lead the German government in September.
“I have never seen, in my political life, such a crisis within the Christian Democrat Conservative Party,” Trittin said, arguing that the CDU-CSU’s indecision over which candidate to lead the bloc in the election had been detrimental to to the alliance.
“Even if they decide to do so now, the other side of the party is so hurt and damaged that it will have a real problem in the election campaign and as a potential coalition partner for whoever.”
The Green Party is gaining confidence and even dares to dream that it could overtake the CDU / CSU when it comes to the September vote.
“Everything is possible,” Konstantin von Notz, a member of the Bundestag and the Green Party, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“There would be no doubt, it will be a very tough election campaign,” he said, adding: “People from all parties will be very tough with us because the Greens say we could be the leading party and it wakes up … every enemy “.
Chicken game
Faced with the CDU’s approval of Laschet overnight, Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding said Monday that the “chicken game” between Laschet and Soeder seemed to be over and noted what a chancellery could mean of Laschet for Germany.
The choice between Soeder and Laschet “consists of style, charisma, and perceived electoral appeal rather than large differences on the merits,” he said in a note.
“Laschet is widely seen as the candidate for continuity. He has typically supported Merkel in other policies, including managing the 2015 refugee crisis. Her somewhat modest style and her tendency to moderate and narrow differences s ‘it looks like Merkel’s approach,’ Schmieding noted.
He added that it is likely that Laschet will also “accompany” some distribution of the additional tax burden in the EU and the euro area.