The Covid-19 variant in Brazil overwhelms local hospitals and cares for younger patients

The new variant, known as P.1, is 1.4 to 2.2 times more contagious than previously found versions of the virus in Brazil and 25% to 61% more capable of reinfecting people. who had been infected by a previous strain, according to a study released Tuesday.

With mass vaccination far from the entire region, countries like Brazil risk becoming a breeding ground for new potent versions of the virus that could make current Covid-19 vaccines less effective, they warned. public health specialists.

A longer-term pandemic could also have devastating economic consequences for countries like Brazil, slowing growth and expanding the country’s already large amount of debt as the government extends payments to the poor, economists said.

“We are facing a dramatic situation: the health systems of many states in Brazil are already collapsing and others in the coming days,” said Eliseu Waldman, an epidemiologist at the University of São Paulo.

Several doctors have reported an increase in younger patients in their Covid-19 wards, many in their 30s and 40s with no underlying health issues. In Peru, some doctors said patients became seriously ill more quickly, just three or four days after the first symptoms appeared, compared to an average of nine to 14 days last year.

“The virus has a different behavior,” said Rosa Lopez, a doctor in the intensive care unit at Guillermo Almenara Irigoyen Hospital in Lima. “It’s really aggressive … the situation is very difficult, really terrible.”

The Amazon strain, P.1, emerged in the Brazilian city of Manaus late last year and quickly caught the attention of Brazilian and international scientists who rushed to map its spread. The large number of mutations in the ear protein variant, which helps the virus penetrate cells, has caused special concern.

“We are in the worst moment, I would not be surprised if P.1 is all over Brazil,” said Felipe Naveca, a researcher at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation who has studied the new strain. He estimated that Brazil already houses hundreds of new variants of the Covid-19, although P.1. is the most worrying so far, he said.

However, researchers still don’t know why it looks like there are more young people falling ill and whether P.1 is more deadly or simply more contagious.

“The recent epidemic in Manaus has strained the city’s health system and led to inadequate access to medical care,” wrote the authors of the study on P.1, which was led by Nuno Faria, a professor of evolution of the virus at Oxford University and Imperial College London. “Therefore, we cannot determine whether the estimated increase in the risk of relative mortality is due to P.1 infection, Manaus healthcare system stresses, or both,” they wrote.

A study led by Mr Naveca published last week showed that in some cases the P.1 strain had a viral load about 10 times higher than the initial versions of the virus circulating in Brazil during most of the pandemic. But the group of international scientists led by Mr Faria concluded that it was not possible until detailed clinical research was conducted to determine whether P.1 infection was associated with an increase in viral loads.

Researchers in South Africa struggled with the same questions when studying another new variant, B.1.351. Doctors also reported an increase in hospitalizations and the death of younger patients, but the researchers concluded that there were more younger people who became seriously ill because there were generally more people infected. The likelihood of dying younger people increased, they said, because hospitals were overwhelmed, not because the variant itself was more deadly.

Another possible explanation is that the virus has already made its way to many older guests, said Francisco Cardoso, an infectious disease specialist at Emílio Ribas Hospital in São Paulo, who also observed an increase in younger patients.

“Lots of [older patients] they have already had contact with the virus and obtained some protection through antibodies or they have already died, “he said.

Latin America has been one of the Covid-19 hotspots in the world since the pandemic began, but in recent days Brazilian doctors have become increasingly desperate, describing horror scenes across the country. While the new strain is largely to blame, so is the lack of preparedness and prevention by governments in the region, public health experts said.

Hospitals operate at ICU occupancy rates above 80% in almost two-thirds of Brazilian states. After dozens of patients drowned in Manaus earlier this year when hospitals ran out of oxygen, prosecutors are investigating reports from another Amazon city indicating that intubated patients were tied to beds after the shortage. of sedatives.

In Peru, where the government has detected strain P.1, hospitals moved rapidly beyond capacity as infections increased in January after one of the worst outbreaks in the world last year. Doctors now choose from dozens of patients when an ICU bed is opened, while Chile provides oxygen that can save lives amid acute shortages.

Scenes occur when the United States and parts of Europe celebrate falling infection rates amid massive vaccination campaigns, evidence of a growing immune gap between rich and poor countries. Although more than 15% of the U.S. population has been shot against Covid-19, Brazil has only administered vaccines to 3% of its population. Peru and Colombia have vaccinated less than 1%.

If Latin America does not find a way to speed up its vaccination campaigns, other countries such as Colombia and Bolivia that have experienced recent slowdowns in new infections could also fall victim to the new variant, infectious disease specialists said.

The longer the disease is stopped in countries like Brazil, the more likely it is that new variants will appear that reduce the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines, posing a threat to nations that have already immunized their populations.

“Unless everyone in the world gets the vaccine soon, none of us will be protected,” said Patricia Garcia, a former Peruvian health minister and epidemiologist. “It will never stop.”

Cesar Palacios, a 44-year-old pediatrician in the northern Peruvian city of Piura, lost his parents and younger sister to the disease earlier this year. He spent ten days in a ventilator after falling ill himself, the disease progressing rapidly as oxygen levels in his blood fell into dangerous territory, with 86% just a day after his first symptom. A few days later he was in an ICU.

“When they put a mechanical fan on you, do you think I’m going to live? Am I going to die? Said Dr. Palacios. “I had no choice. I was so scared. ”

Although Peru has imposed a night curfew on Lima and other states with high infections, Brazilian cities such as São Paulo and the capital Brasilia have introduced tougher restrictions in recent days.

But many Brazilians have defied the rules, taking the lead of the country’s president. Right-wing leader Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed the disease and attacked state governors for imposing closures, accusing them of destroying local businesses.

São Paulo military police attacked about 50 establishments over the weekend that refused to comply, including a group of 190 elderly Brazilians celebrating a clandestine party.

—Luciana Magalhaes in São Paulo and Gabriele Steinhauser in Johannesburg contributed to this article.

Write to Samantha Pearson at [email protected] and Ryan Dube at [email protected]