What you need to know
- CDC researchers examined rates of severe COVID outcomes among fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals during the time period in which the prevalence of weekly delta cases rose from less than 1% to 90%.
- In this time period, fully vaccinated people in the 13 jurisdictions studied (including New York City) accounted for 9% of new deaths from COVID and 8% of new hospitalizations.
- However, the protection offered by vaccines is clear: even after the delta became dominant, fully vaccinated people were 5 times less likely to become infected, 10 times less hospitalized, and 10 times less likely to die. associated with COVID-19 compared to unvaccinated individuals.
A new CDC study released Friday provides what may be the most shocking evidence of the threat that the highly contagious delta variant may pose to fully vaccinated people, especially because it usurped all other COVID-19 strains to dominate northern cases. Americans.
Which is also clear, though: this danger increases tenfold for people who are not completely immunized against the virus, the researchers found.
The health agency analyzed the percentages of total vaccination cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in 13 jurisdictions, including New York City, between April 4 and July 17, which was when northern prevalence -American delta increased from less than 1% of new weekly cases to 90% of new weekly cases.
(Almost 99% of U.S. positive samples are now tested, according to the CDC, and at least 98% of all tests in New York City and New Jersey over the past month).
We thought we could control the pandemic with about 70% of the country vaccinated. But with the Delta variant causing an increase in cases even in highly vaccinated countries, this changes the math. We may need 90% to get the COVID-19 vaccine to really argue with this variant, says Dr. Suzanne Judd, an Alabama epidemiologist.
In this time period, fully vaccinated people from the 13 jurisdictions studied accounted for 9% of new deaths from COVID and 8% of new hospitalizations. They accounted for 8% of new cases over the same time period, although health officials at all levels of government are constantly more concerned about the first two metrics, which indicate the most serious results associated with advanced COVID infections. .
Undoubtedly, vaccination (this CDC report did not reveal advanced cases by vaccine brand, specifically) has been a proven protector. Ninety-one percent, 92% and 92%, respectively, of deaths, hospitalizations and cases associated with COVID during the period from April 4 to July 17 were among the unvaccinated. But any apparent risk to fully immunized people has been a critical issue in recent months.
CDC
And the risk only seemed to intensify as the delta’s weekly prevalence grew, according to CDC research. The latter study divided the research period into two periods: from April 4 to June 19, when the prevalence of the delta increased significantly, and from June 20 to July 17, when it completely took over the United States and from all over the world.
In the first date range assessed, fully vaccinated people accounted for 8% of new deaths from COVID, 7% of hospitalizations, and 5% of cases. These percentages increased dramatically during the study period from June 20 to July 17, to 16% of new COVID deaths, 14% of new hospitalizations, and 18% of new COVID cases.
CDC
The rates of complete vaccination in the 13 jurisdictions studied increased between the two time periods: from 37% in the first period, from April 4 to June 19, to 53% in the second, from June 20 to June 17. of July. Based on research that boasts 90% vaccine efficacy, the CDC says it would have expected vaccinated people to account for 6% of new cases, which is close to the 5% observed in the first period studied and around 10%. % of new cases in the second, which fell well below 18% found.
Fully vaccinated people representing 18% of new COVID cases during the period from June 20 to July 17 would have been expected if the vaccine’s effectiveness were at 80%, according to the CDC. As the prevalence of the delta exceeded 50%, the percentage of people fully vaccinated among new cases of COVID in each age group increased at rates that reflected a baseline index of vaccination efficacy below 80%, the researchers said.
According to the CDC, increased hospitalization and covetous mortality among vaccinated people age 65 and older also appeared more than expected. However, the overwhelming delta risk to unvaccinated people is clear from the latest data, which officials in New York City and elsewhere are struggling to consolidate in the minds of the United States. .
New mortality, hospitalization, and case rates were substantially higher in unvaccinated individuals compared to vaccinated individuals in all 13 U.S. jurisdictions. This latest CDC study says its results are consistent with previous research indicating that the delta is more likely to cause advanced infections than other strains, but is not more likely, in a statistically significant sense, to produce more severe results.
Even after the delta became the most dominant variant, fully vaccinated people were five times less likely to become infected with COVID, 10 times less likely to be hospitalized because of it, and 10 times less likely to die. of complications associated with the virus compared to unvaccinated people. found the CDC.
“The results coincided with a potential decrease in SARS-CoV-2-confirmed infection vaccine protection and strong continued protection against hospitalization and death associated with COVID-19,” the study said. CDC.
“Vaccination protects against serious COVID-19 diseases, including the Delta variant, and monitoring the incidence of COVID-19 by vaccination status can provide early signs of changes in vaccine-related protection that can be confirmed by well-controlled vaccine efficacy studies “. said the study.
CDC
Researchers identify a number of limitations in their study, such as adding partially vaccinated people to their non-immunized assessment, delays in death reports, assumptions about when the prevalence of weekly delta cases reaching 50%, and the fact that all 13 jurisdictions represent only 25% of the American population.
Locally, both New York and New Jersey have been in the midst of a case and hospitalization period since May, although none of the latest figures compare marginally with those of spring 2020.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who addressed the delta variant in her first speech as governor, as well as in the days before she was officially sworn in, reported Friday a new 6,151 daily case, the highest toll high in a single day since April 16.
He also reported 43 new daily deaths, the highest figure in a single day since April 30 (44), although Hochul began his administration by reporting these figures differently than his predecessor.
It is unclear according to New York State data how many of the new deaths and cases occur from advanced cases.
The U.S. government has also strongly acknowledged the delta threat. President Joe Biden on Thursday unveiled a six-point plan to combat the threat of this variant, including new vaccination warrants and school recommendations.
See here all the highlights of Biden’s new delta variant strategy.
We thought we could control the pandemic with about 70% of the country vaccinated. But with the Delta variant causing an increase in cases even in highly vaccinated countries, this changes the math. We may need 90% to get the COVID-19 vaccine to really argue with this variant, says Dr. Suzanne Judd, an Alabama epidemiologist.